Cyclone predictions

Some info for our northern anglers and those planning to head north

Weather Bureau Warns of Early Cyclone Risk
People in Western Australia’s northwest are being urged to ensure they are ready for the upcoming cyclone season. “This season there is a higher-than-normal risk of a pre-Christmas tropical cyclone and with the cyclone season rapidly approaching it is important that residents start preparations immediately.” explained Andrew Burton, Manager of Severe Weather Services.

There were four cyclones in the waters off Northwest Australia last season. TC Nicholas crossed the coast near Coral Bay as a Category 1 cyclone and Pancho produced flooding while it was still well offshore, but overall the impacts were minor. “With the likelihood of early activity, we expect to see a greater number of cyclones this season. A total of around 5 to 7 cyclones are expected and it is likely we’ll see around two coastal impacts with one of them being severe” Mr. Burton said. Coastal communities between Broome and Exmouth face the highest cyclone risk of anywhere in Australia. “The most important advice that people can receive at this time of year is to be well informed of the dangers posed by cyclones, to understand the warning service, and to be suitably prepared” he said. The call comes as the Bureau of Meteorology and the FESA-State Emergency Service begin a tour of the northwest to promote cyclone and flood awareness and preparation initiatives.

Current high values of the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) suggest there is likely to be an early start to the season with an increased risk of an early coastal crossing. However, climate modeling suggests that sea surface temperatures will remain near normal across the Pacific this summer and that the atmosphere will remain in a neutral El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) state for the coming cyclone season. This means it is likely to be an average to slightly above average season overall.

Details of the 2008/2009 Tropical Cyclone Seasonal Outlook for North West Australia:

Likelihood of a cyclone off the northwest coast before Christmas and a higher than usual risk of an early season coastal impact.
5 to 7 cyclones in waters off the northwest coast (average number is 5).
Likelihood of around 2 coastal impacts.
Significant risk of at least one severe tropical cyclone coastal impact during the season.
For further information and weekly updates on the El Niño/Southern Oscillation go to: http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/.

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roberta's picture

Posts: 2773

Date Joined: 08/07/08

scary

Mon, 2008-10-20 09:59

 thought of what you guys up north have to be prepared for, hope not for all your sakes, good luck.  Have friends living in Broome, we watch all the time, hoping they don't cross the coast for them or anybody else.

 

SPEWIE LEWIE

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Adam Gallash's picture

Posts: 15517

Date Joined: 29/11/05

Bring em on

Mon, 2008-10-20 10:20

Love the fishing before the cyclones, not so much after as it takes weeks for the water clarity to come good. :(  Yep, certainly get the feeling theres a few coming this year.  Last year we had some close calls in Exmouth, the flooding was certainly a bit crazy!

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7739ian's picture

Posts: 948

Date Joined: 25/06/08

Bloody Cyclones

Mon, 2008-10-20 13:36

i have sat out several while working on the construction of the harbours for Mt Newman Mining and Robe River Iron - nothing like sweating it out in a powerless donga for a couple of days. The problem is the damage they do to the marine enviroment as well as shore based areas. Our last trip to Pardoo was about 5 - 6 years ago and not a mud crab to be had as the stirred up silts smothered a lot of them in their holes. Subsequent hits and near misses over the next few seasons made us give this favoured spot a miss and pick Denham as being closer and less prone to cyclone damage - a real shame as Pam Leeds at Pardoo was a great host. 

Boozehag's picture

Posts: 169

Date Joined: 27/08/07

Totally Agree

Mon, 2008-10-20 14:09

Myself and my Family used to fish of Sabel Island in Whim Creek this was a pure treasure of a Island until TC Steve came through and blew the old caravan away, This also caused a bit of damage to the fabulous reef that was exposed on low tide. Real shame havent been their since.

Boozehag

Daisy's picture

Posts: 789

Date Joined: 24/01/08

G'day Boozehag

Tue, 2008-10-21 04:28

I quite often stay at Sable and while the vans gone the reefs looking good. Great take off point for Geographe Shoals and Beagle Reef.
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GusG's picture

Posts: 547

Date Joined: 07/04/08

Tell me about it

Tue, 2008-10-21 08:29

I am currently compiling our Cyclone Readiness Plan for work.  We are getting the site in Pt Hedland ready for what looks like a bad year.  I normally fly up there once a week but I think I will watch the cyclone forecast closely and try not to get stuck up there for a few days during one.  Sitting in an unpowered donga for a couple of days with a cyclone raging does not sound like fun.

calcarter's picture

Posts: 27

Date Joined: 17/10/08

Just try and get some decent

Tue, 2008-10-21 11:15

Just try and get some decent insurance on your boat up here not as easy as you think.

salty

Boozehag's picture

Posts: 169

Date Joined: 27/08/07

Excellent to hear Daisy

Tue, 2008-10-21 12:29

Thats good news Daisy might have to pay her another visit did the Cyclone get rid of the Rats or are they still their.

jay_burgess's picture

Posts: 4648

Date Joined: 18/08/05

Hope it's not too bad this

Tue, 2008-10-21 19:55

Hope it's not too bad this year, cyclones wreck the fishing for weeks at a time... on the flip side... days off work and cyclone parties :) bring it on.