Cyclone Season Predictions 2010/11
Submitted by Adam Gallash on Tue, 2010-10-19 11:30
Well, its almost that time of year again when the southerners get one up on us northerners.
Whats the predictions for this year with la nina and high water temps expected.
How many will WA get, how big and who's going to cop it?
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just dhu it
Posts: 1081
Date Joined: 14/05/09
last year
Adam how many did you get around Exy last year ??
scotto
Posts: 2472
Date Joined: 21/04/08
not sure about the cyclones,
but law of averages suggest somewhere up north is due for a good'un, as its been a while since the last biggy. luck of the draw i guess. broome maybe? are we takin bets adam?!?
what do you reckon about the relation between the warmer water, and the drier winter we had? are we going to have a wetter summer down here?
more to the point, how hot do you reckon this seasons metro pelagic run will be?! i've got a slight chubby just thinkin about it!
carnarvonite
Posts: 8673
Date Joined: 24/07/07
La Nina
The weather predictions are for an early start to the cyclone season with one before xmas because of the northern waters being very hot for this time of the year and are going to get a lot hotter still.
They are saying that there may be as many as twelve with 6-7 hitting the coast between Broome and Exmouth.
Certainly hope quite a few come ashore at non populated areas and dump heaps of water on the Gascoyne river catchment because its been nearly two years since we had a river here in Carnarvon and we beed it to replenish the aquifer
sunshine
Posts: 2627
Date Joined: 03/03/09
Broome unlikely
Have studied cyclone generation on our coast and they all form in a narrow alley (except those that transit across the top east to west) and their tracks generally take them away from Broome itself (Rosita being the exception) - however with the early wet which has built really quickly this year I remain a sceptic and my thoughts are only three for the season which actually cross the coast as cyclones
Lets see whether 40 years in my industry is more reliable that computer predictions -
Brucesta
Posts: 1721
Date Joined: 29/05/09
Not a nice thing to wish on
Not a nice thing to wish on people but actually enjoy cyclones so i hope one hits karratha and green's this palce right up, of course with minimal damage but i saw on the Tv this morning they are predicting the worst cyclone season in 40 years.
As long as we get an active monsoon in Karratha as i love summer storms and lightning
Las Vegas - Rolling the dice and trying your luck. 1M+ Barra summer target. 100kg Black Marlin winter target
Marky
Posts: 420
Date Joined: 01/05/09
Yea they seem to do circle
Yea they seem to do circle work around Broome recently going past the top heading west then head sth around us and towards Port Headland... Lets keep it that way hopefully... I'm thinking there will be a big one around xmas and new year time so Im definantly home off the rigs for them, and quite a few that form but dont cross the coast....
Official prediction
7 cyclone formed, 3 cross the coast. One sth of Broome, one that will run accross sth of Karratha and head inland for quite sometime accross pannawonica etc and the usual one accross the kimberley nth of derby...
4 others stay offshore... but close enough to evacuate the rigs....:)
scottland
Posts: 3040
Date Joined: 10/05/10
hahah better not be one
between 8 -15th december as im going to karratha to chase some fish CANT WAIT!!
i support two teams eagles and whoever is playing the dockers
pale ale
Posts: 1755
Date Joined: 02/01/10
Probably have a couple
Probably have a couple serious ones this year in Karratha. I have just purchased a house and new boat.
scottland
Posts: 3040
Date Joined: 10/05/10
mmm i it wll be my luck to
that i cant get up there and have to keep catching herring and bream down here :(
i support two teams eagles and whoever is playing the dockers
PilbaraBrad
Posts: 3628
Date Joined: 16/05/07
who knows they said the same
who knows
they said the same thing last year and there was only the one north of hedland.
locally they had the town meeting last night. Estimate 5-7 with a strong chance of one before chrissy
whim creek
pardoo
sandfire roadhouse
the usual hotspots
Lucky Tim
Posts: 2536
Date Joined: 28/11/07
fingers crossed for zero.
fingers crossed for zero.
abeldog
Posts: 801
Date Joined: 12/04/10
Hope it Dumps over the Pilbra and Gascoyne
Have been travelling to this area for the past four years visiting all the stations.
They have been doin it very tough and could do with a good soaking.
A good soak without the damage, is that possible ???
"People See Things As They Are & Ask Why???
We Can All Dream of Things That Never Were and Ask Why Not!!"( RK )
out wide
Posts: 1535
Date Joined: 30/12/08
Yep lets hope
it pisses down up north and down here too for that matter. Went out east of Newman not long ago and it is in bad nick.. very dry so come on cyclones.
I recon 2 or 3 to cross but will mainly hit the top end country down to say Headland in line with most of the rain this year.
Markie
Posts: 2154
Date Joined: 06/08/10
i still want to move
after reading all this i still want to move anywhere up north :) get away from this city life. Fishing and mother nature :D
Freo_Boi
Posts: 266
Date Joined: 23/02/10
bom has isued pre chrissy!
And with all that la nina talk of it hanging on into the wet..
Im going to bet first one mid to late November.
Lets just hope if its a big season it doesnt do too much damage and gives the North a good drink!
Dale
Posts: 7930
Date Joined: 13/09/05
I'm going up to Port Hedland
I'm going up to Port Hedland next week for a meet and greet for a new job, so if I score that I'll be hoping nothing too bad comes through.
Cheers
Dale
"Just because you are a Character, Doesn't mean you have Character."
Mr Wolf