Sea Breeze got it So So So So wrong today
Submitted by Andy Mac on Fri, 2012-01-20 10:29
Forecast for zephers below 10 knots all day.
Reality - 40 knot gusts and a south easterly that stood up the waves in a very nasty fashion.
On the water by 5 off the water by 8 (we had had enough.)
Still a feed of whiting for breakfast and its a good day to be alive.
Wind was so strong my sea anchor rope snapped!!!.
I hope not too many decided to hit the FADs today - we met several at the boat ramp who had set out and turned back with water going over the gunnels.
____________________________________________________________________________
Cheers
Andy Mac (Fishwrecked Reeltime Editor & Forum Moderator)
Youngest member of the Fishwrecked Old Farts Club
GlennO87
Posts: 182
Date Joined: 29/01/11
I looked at the site last
I looked at the site last night i thought aw yeah looks fantastic!!!!!!!!! Looked out the window this morning the palm trees in the suburb are just about falling over........I was like hmmmmm yeah something aint right!
I love fishing. It`s escaping reality for a few hours for me!
greatrex
Posts: 210
Date Joined: 29/08/11
im just lucky we got a new
im just lucky we got a new fuel pump and that fucked the fuel line and couldnt be fixed till this morning and prevented us heading out into this sh!t. i know of a few people who were heading to the fads...havent heard from them yet
Andy Mac
Posts: 4778
Date Joined: 03/02/06
Yep
We saw a heap of trailers in the carpark when we got back, still people heading out. We warned them but I guess till they get out there themselves its pretty hard to believe when just outside he marina looks like glass.
The only reason we escaped the worst of it was that on the way out to get a few whiting for extra bait the wind wasn't all that bad, but as we heard someone obviously at the back of rotto question sea rescue on the radio about the forecast we heard 40knots mentioned and both looked at eachother
, then at the lightening all around 
and thought bugger this, lets get a few quick few whiting and head in. Within 15 minutes it had built up to well over 25knots and by the time we were back behind staggies it was gusting 30 plus.
We fossicked around inside the reef for a while as I have nailed a few dhuies there in previous years but the wind was ridiculous and ended up snapping my sea anchor.
Ah well, safe and sound is the main thing. Just hope others out there don't throw "caution to the wind" (pun intended) and stay out in rough conditions.
Cheers
Andy Mac (Fishwrecked Reeltime Editor & Forum Moderator)
Youngest member of the Fishwrecked Old Farts Club
Tim
Posts: 2497
Date Joined: 26/09/06
Andy Andy Andy
Was just talking about this with Till and we would have thought at your age you would have learnt by now. JK.
Had taken the day off as well but the lightning was going from midnight here and put on a real show between 2 and 4 this morning. Canned my trip at around 4 Asti wasn't getting better.
The forecast page indicated the weather was nothing like the graph on sea breeze but that only updated this morning. Live weather readings below the graph also showed the wind gusting to 35 knots so no point heading out.
thesupervisor
Posts: 1136
Date Joined: 10/06/09
yeah head up to mates house
yeah head up to mates house for a two rocks launch and the wind just kept getting worse
so a day off work and no fishing damn
i think people forget that the top section of seabreeze.com is a prediction if you scroll down and look at say ocean reef you will see that the wind only started up that way at 630ish
getting the bottom line final answer from a bunch of blokes that use false names and put smiley faces at the end of paragraphs is not the best place in the world to get the information you seek.
Andy Mac
Posts: 4778
Date Joined: 03/02/06
That'll teach me not to check BOM as well
Tim, NOR there wasn't any storm action at all and it was quite calm at 4-00am, we thought thats exectly how it was going to be for the rest of the day... but boy were we and Sea Breeze wrong.
Live winds at 5-00am at Ocean Reef were around 5 knots then within minutes they hit 35knots.
Luckily I was old and wise enough to know when to call it a day. My guess is Sea Rescue will be busy today.
Cheers
Andy Mac (Fishwrecked Reeltime Editor & Forum Moderator)
Youngest member of the Fishwrecked Old Farts Club
chrisp
Posts: 1217
Date Joined: 24/05/08
I know they get it wrong
I know they get it wrong sometimes but today was just ridiculous. I checked it at 7 and 35knots gusts at rotto made my day at work a lot easier.
Andy Mac
Posts: 4778
Date Joined: 03/02/06
Exactly Chris
I don;t mind them misjudging a tad here and there, but it was chalk and cheese out there today. Makes you wonder how they can get it so wrong.
Cheers
Andy Mac (Fishwrecked Reeltime Editor & Forum Moderator)
Youngest member of the Fishwrecked Old Farts Club
Swan River Fisher
Posts: 877
Date Joined: 03/05/11
It did predict thunder
It did predict thunder storms, but it definetly was not what sea breeze forecasted - wind wise
its calmed off a bit now though. Do you think it is advisable to still go out tonight?
Glad to see your still ok
which ramp did you launch from?
Swan River Fisher
Posts: 877
Date Joined: 03/05/11
lol it says 4-8 knot sou
lol it says 4-8 knot sou westers but down the bottom at garden island its 35 knots gusting 45-50 knots!
but
Warnings
Nil.
Synoptic Situation
A high pressure ridge is positioned to the south of the state with a trough near
the west coast.
Forecasts:
Friday until midnight: NE/SE winds 18/23 knots, tending NE 10/15 knots later in
the morning. Winds shifting S/SW 8/13 knots around midday. Squalls to 40 knots
possible near thunderstorms. Seas to 1.0m. Swell to 2.0m.
Swell at Cottesloe: to 0.7m.
Winds on Melville Water: NE/SE winds 18/23 knots, tending E/NE winds 10/15 knots
late morning. Winds shifting S/SW 8/13 knots for a period in the afternoon.
Squalls to 40 knots near thunderstorms.
Bodie
Posts: 3758
Date Joined: 05/11/07
lads load the boats ready to
lads load the boats ready to go, its going to glass off! :-)
Andy Mac
Posts: 4778
Date Joined: 03/02/06
Sure is....
.......... Next week!
Cheers
Andy Mac (Fishwrecked Reeltime Editor & Forum Moderator)
Youngest member of the Fishwrecked Old Farts Club
glastronomic
Posts: 892
Date Joined: 16/02/11
I was out 12 odd miles of
I was out 12 odd miles of Mindarie and the weather turned very nasty indeed, waves as big as my boat and terrible conditions, BIG flasings of lighting in the distance as we made our way back home @8knots ploughing though some seriouis waves!
Carpark of Mindarie was full of boats and i hope that all will have a safe return!
left @ 5am and bck @ 9 am safe and sound!
Seabreeze was indeed VERY wide of the mark!
very short video of inside the reef after we motored back and found some relief from the chaos!
http://youtu.be/rIq-VwuIJjA
abeldog
Posts: 801
Date Joined: 12/04/10
Come On
Bert, The Savage was just getting warmed up.
Still happy to be at work today
"People See Things As They Are & Ask Why???
We Can All Dream of Things That Never Were and Ask Why Not!!"( RK )
glastronomic
Posts: 892
Date Joined: 16/02/11
Yes You are correct as you
Yes You are correct as you been on board in a bit of faul weather.
We were never in danger or even getting wet.
This boat of mine will take a lot worse, but what about all the other ones which are not as big and or seaworthy?
When we came back the carpark was almost half full and there were at least 40+ boats out there in all sorts of forms small and big , according to the trailers that were there.
abeldog
Posts: 801
Date Joined: 12/04/10
Like Andy Mac & Other
Good Skippers I have been with Bert, you guys have common sense.
That's what make fishing enjoyable.
"People See Things As They Are & Ask Why???
We Can All Dream of Things That Never Were and Ask Why Not!!"( RK )
uncle
Posts: 9543
Date Joined: 10/02/07
shocking experience when
that happens, no where to hide and you have to head home into it,was going today but after seeing all the weed at mindarie yesterday,elected to stay home, bloody glad i Did!!!!!
lets hope everyone gets home safely, horrible to have a breakdown
all aggressive fish love bigjohnsjigs
allrounder
Posts: 1853
Date Joined: 10/11/08
A fair bit of weed out there Uncle
Some of them have little surprises under them.
So tell me have you got your info from years on the water or hours on the internet?
Tomcat
Posts: 614
Date Joined: 24/02/11
Wind
Sat at Cockburn from 5.30 till 9 then drove home in a torrent of rain glad It hit early was on my way to fads and I think some got caught out there
Abz
Posts: 81
Date Joined: 08/06/11
good to hear you guys made it
good to hear you guys made it out safe and the anchor can be replaced easy.. what matters is your own safety.
i reckon we shouldnt depend on these websites too much because sooner or later it will be trouble and a poor fisherman will head out in to the perfect storm (remembered that huge wave in the movie) maybe its a better idea to see the conditions for your self before heading flat out to your destination, im sure most of the times you will see it coming and as long as one doesnt get greedy and make a quick decision to head home they should be fine. The worry is for the less experienced or new boat owners and specially those that just dnt get when to quit.. specially if they've been warned by those that have just came in from such a situation.
Andy Mac
Posts: 4778
Date Joined: 03/02/06
I know its not their responsibility but...
I would have thought that maybe Sea Rescue could sound a warning to boaties heading out when forecasts are way off the mark or change so dramatically.
I know its the skipper's responsibility to check the weather forecast but maybe as people log on a quick, "have you updated your forecast as it has changed dramatically this morning?" from sea rescue wouldn't go astray.
Prevention is better than cure and I would hate to think how many small boats got caught out today.
I actually had a thought for Bradybunch who I think last night suggested he was heading overnight to Rotto (no doubt thinking a nice glass off would be greeting him in the morning... hope he is OK.)
Cheers
Andy Mac (Fishwrecked Reeltime Editor & Forum Moderator)
Youngest member of the Fishwrecked Old Farts Club
wrasse magnet
Posts: 126
Date Joined: 16/10/10
I don't think we can be
I don't think we can be justified in unloading on seabreeze today as none of the available weather sources predicted the winds correctly:
Seabreeze: less than 10 knots
Will weather: less than 10 knots
Buoy Weather: 11 to 15 knots
BOM weather map: less than 10 knots
Th strong winds were generated by the thunderstorms and none of the models can predict those. BOM only updated their forecast when the storms developed and the 40 knots gusts are attributed to the storms only.
sherbert
Posts: 4717
Date Joined: 10/09/06
We are going on a over nighter
Camp on the beach, Hope the weather gods are kind
Assassin landbase fishing club
Andy Mac
Posts: 4778
Date Joined: 03/02/06
Mother Nature has some Power
Thats for sure.
As I always tell me deckies... you have to have imense respect for the ocean as it can turn on you in an instant.
I agree regarding all sites getting it wrong and that storm no doubt had something to do with it but even now at 11.32am despite real wind out there showing 30+ knots the forecast hasn't been changed on Sea Breeze. So there must be a flaw in the system somewhere.
Cheers
Andy Mac (Fishwrecked Reeltime Editor & Forum Moderator)
Youngest member of the Fishwrecked Old Farts Club
wrasse magnet
Posts: 126
Date Joined: 16/10/10
Seabreeze and all the other
Seabreeze and all the other automatically generated weather maps/graphs etc, use the output of a computer weather model. These get run very 6 hours or so hence you won't see it update till 1pm and even then it may not change as the computer models do not work at a sufficiently high resolution to pick up localized effects such as outflow from thunderstorms. The only "human" generated regular forecast we get is the BOM local waters forecast which is the only one to have been updated to reflect real conditions.
Iceman
Posts: 747
Date Joined: 17/03/09
Sea Rescue
We used to advise if we recieved an update, bjut most would ignore us saying it'l be OK.
One day last summer sat in Ocean Reef marina watch dark clouds (big Storm)come down from the North and speaking to those still launching as well as transmiting warnings on the radio for vessels to return to shore. We could see how bad it was on the radar Again they said would be OK and would not last long. Half an hour later when the storm hit we had 8 calls for assistance including 2 taking on water. With only 2 rescue vessels made it difficult with vis down to 50 mtrs. Within an hour it was all over and back to calm seas. If they had just waited they would have been OK.
Some boaties just do not realise how the weather can change so quickly. My dad and I got caughht 25nm out when a storm came over the horizon. left as soon as we saw it but it caught up to us. 40+ knt wind and driving rain. lasted over an hour and just had to ride it out. Once it passed was calm again decided to keep going home.
I always check live seabreeze at Ocean Reef & Rotto before leaving home. Check again on my phone when heading out.
Smartline Personal Mortgage Advisers - Level 1, 11 Hobsons Gate Currambine
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Swan River Fisher
Posts: 877
Date Joined: 03/05/11
true just last week a mate
true
just last week a mate got caught out 25km+ out. electrics down- no radio or motor. 30 knot easterly winds so drifting further away and 3m swells. Dropped anchor in 150m of water but not enough rope so was useless. took almost 2 hours for them to be located with changing co-ordinates all the time. Finally were found for a 3+ hour tow back to the ramp.
People have got to be careful out there and check the weather again and again.
A boating video once said ' If in doubt, dont go out'...
sea-kem
Posts: 15063
Date Joined: 30/11/09
Any consensus on tomorrow
Any consensus on tomorrow then?
Love the West!
Iceman
Posts: 747
Date Joined: 17/03/09
18hrs
let you know in 18hrs - anyone guess.
Smartline Personal Mortgage Advisers - Level 1, 11 Hobsons Gate Currambine
0448122208
Bodie
Posts: 3758
Date Joined: 05/11/07
im telling you, its going to
im telling you, its going to glass off!!!
Look at seabreezenow :)
Once the clouds clear, will heat up and the wind will drop
Andy Mac
Posts: 4778
Date Joined: 03/02/06
You are probably right Bodie
But I am too bruised and battered to give it another go today.
Old age and all that.
Cheers
Andy Mac (Fishwrecked Reeltime Editor & Forum Moderator)
Youngest member of the Fishwrecked Old Farts Club
abeldog
Posts: 801
Date Joined: 12/04/10
Bodie
We all know your a thrill seeker
"People See Things As They Are & Ask Why???
We Can All Dream of Things That Never Were and Ask Why Not!!"( RK )
Bodie
Posts: 3758
Date Joined: 05/11/07
whats what centre consoles
whats what centre consoles are built for!! :)
Scotte
Posts: 1147
Date Joined: 07/12/06
today was a no brainer for
today was a no brainer for me. squalls possible means anything can happen.
saw seabreeze last night and looked great but it still said possible squalls on other weather sites.
that possibility become a reality this morning.hope everyone who did go out bade it back in ok.
yes they got it wrong but it did say possible thunderstorm.
beau
Posts: 4114
Date Joined: 24/01/10
Boom, glass off! Pinkies will
Boom, glass off! Pinkies will be starving!
Andy Mac
Posts: 4778
Date Joined: 03/02/06
The "possible thunderstorm"
was duly noted and usually it means a late storm build up, but on awaking to see the huge storm down Mandurah way it appeared that NOR had missed it and it was going to be untouched. I have been boating for a long long time and what happened today in terms of the weather pattern shift was pretty rare. We were a long way away from the storms yet the winds were extreme. Squalls like that are usually associated with being inside the storm itself but these were well away and more like a general pattern of weather, which I would have thought could have been better predicted.
But I am no meteorologist and am grateful for the fact that they are usually pretty good. Today was freaky however ("Possible Thunderstorm" or not).
Cheers
Andy Mac (Fishwrecked Reeltime Editor & Forum Moderator)
Youngest member of the Fishwrecked Old Farts Club
scottland
Posts: 3040
Date Joined: 10/05/10
Looks great for the arvo
http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/wrap_fwo.pl?IDW28201.txt
i support two teams eagles and whoever is playing the dockers
Tony Halliday
Posts: 2500
Date Joined: 14/06/07
well if I plan anything it
well if I plan anything it will blow guts for hell for sure...
Tony Halliday: ~Meals on Reels ~
It takes a strong fish to swim against the current. Even a dead one can float with it
"It is always in season for old men to learn." Aeschylus (525-456 BC)
"In a mad world only the mad are sane." Akira Kurosawa (1910-1998)
sea-kem
Posts: 15063
Date Joined: 30/11/09
Ha ha ha that's why I asked
Ha ha ha that's why I asked for a consensus Tony. It happens every time I plan a trip.
Love the West!
cool41
Posts: 74
Date Joined: 15/12/08
sea breeze just updated that
sea breeze just updated that scond, not much change in graphs
Bodie
Posts: 3758
Date Joined: 05/11/07
1pm GI 8 knots!
1pm GI 8 knots!
sea-kem
Posts: 15063
Date Joined: 30/11/09
You were right about the
You were right about the glass of Brodie. We got up to Seabird at 4.30 Fri night and it had glassed off. Had an Excellent session on the beach catching Tailor and Herring with lots of cold beers ;) Sat morning was a cracker, report soon.
Love the West!
Andy Mac
Posts: 4778
Date Joined: 03/02/06
Just my luck
Doh!!!!
Cheers
Andy Mac (Fishwrecked Reeltime Editor & Forum Moderator)
Youngest member of the Fishwrecked Old Farts Club
Swan River Fisher
Posts: 877
Date Joined: 03/05/11
any more survival stories of
any more survival stories of this morning?
DhuBoi
Posts: 896
Date Joined: 25/05/09
Common sense why go out if
Common sense why go out if its blowing its tits off ?
living is fishing
Andy Mac
Posts: 4778
Date Joined: 03/02/06
Thats just it - it wasn't windy at 5-00am
1. Forecast on all websites say 0 - 5 knots all day
2. at the ramp it is blowing less than 5 knots at 5-00am
3. You get out there to start fishing and everything is fine then hear someone on the radio ask for a weather check and they say its blowing 40knots at Two Rocks.
4. You start to head back in just in case and in minutes its blowing 35 knots.
I dare say it caught out plenty of people that launched in that little window between 4 and 6am. The ones with common sense came back in and are now silently kicking themselves, those with bigger balls than me stayed out got smashed and probably are enjoying a great arvo now that the wind has eased to what it was supposed to be all day..
Cheers
Andy Mac (Fishwrecked Reeltime Editor & Forum Moderator)
Youngest member of the Fishwrecked Old Farts Club
Turbo Tim
Posts: 27
Date Joined: 22/12/11
8-10 knots in Safety Bay right now
Last night was gentle onshore at Safety Bay boat ramp, died to nothing until about 1 am- then POW!
30knots with 40+ knot gusts, 2am I was taking videos cos in 46 years only seen a thunderstorm like it once or twice before. Only thing missing was giant hail.
Now at 4pm it died to nothing (8-10 knots) about midday- might go watch with envy as the boats head out for a good looking Friday night. The current warning couldn't be right could it?
Still with the way it hit last night- knee deep with an ice coldie as the sun goes in Warnbro Sound down will do me for now. If it does blow up again a quick walk home, whiting in the fry pan, maybe another ice coldie...
Love summertime- take care all you lucky buggers with boats.
randall df223
Posts: 6454
Date Joined: 08/08/11
so it turned out to be a
so it turned out to be a really good day to snap the steering cable immediately after launching? then have to put the boat back on the trailer and go and find a new cable and then spend the day in the sweltering sun, pulling the old one out and putting the new one in so I can go out again on the weekend?
I like to think it was and I didn't waste a day that I should have been fishing!
Fish! HARD!
Tomcat
Posts: 614
Date Joined: 24/02/11
Fair go
Those that went out may have left last night or early morning this was a little out of the blue
Jesse Federico
Posts: 12
Date Joined: 07/01/12
Was supposed to go out 3km
Was supposed to go out 3km past rotto this morning after seeing seabreaze weather report. Woke up at 1AM with lightnig and thinder blaring. Was so pissed off. I encourage all of you to use this: www.bom.gov.au/wa/forecasts/map.shtml
Just click the area you want to know about. Then done.
Or for hourly updates use this: http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDR703.loop.shtml
Then go ahead and tick "Weather observations" on the right. It is always accurate.
Going to try again tomorrow morning.
scottland
Posts: 3040
Date Joined: 10/05/10
Garunteed
Fisherman 1992 would have been out
i support two teams eagles and whoever is playing the dockers
Swan River Fisher
Posts: 877
Date Joined: 03/05/11
thats a good day for him he
thats a good day for him he wouldn't've. he needs it to be blowing atleast 60 knots and have 5m swells to even consider it
DhuBoi
Posts: 896
Date Joined: 25/05/09
And another thing break
And another thing break downs might be uncommon in new motors but i have have an auxillary motor on the boat , id rather putt home at 6 or 8 knots then drift further out n get hammered by shitty weather , most accidents in life are caused they dont just happen an they can be avoided
living is fishing
Ombak
Posts: 3
Date Joined: 07/01/12
yup was going to head out
yup was going to head out for a fish today
Willlo
Posts: 1490
Date Joined: 07/10/11
Got back in at 15oohrs was a
Got back in at 15oohrs was a mixmaster from 0500 till around 1100 after that picked up a few fish was a good day in the end.
Call Sign - BZ785
Haynes Hunter Prowler CC
Paul_86
Posts: 1449
Date Joined: 27/03/09
Weather was perfect in jurien
Weather was perfect in jurien today! I dont know what all the fuss is about ;)
UncutTriggerInWA
Posts: 2692
Date Joined: 05/09/08
Too bad Andy.. sorry
Land based it was a bit more tollerable. I finished a tender today at about 1pm so I thought "fugg it!". The dog driving me crazy so headed out for a LB effort. A bit of burley and the ocean errupted. Home after 90 mins of fishing and the smoker has done its thing. Weather was certainly unpredictable but HOT.
Vince.
Work smart and fish often.
Member and die-hard supporter of the mighty West Coast Eagles.
stevebw23
Posts: 155
Date Joined: 12/11/11
today was the best weather
today was the best weather iv'e had out at rotto. got to stretch the legs on my 2 strokes finally
Symes Plumbing & Gas. No job too small, servicing all northern suburbs
Redfin Wrangler
Posts: 144
Date Joined: 21/01/12
I never trust that or willy weather anymore
This is the last line of defence for me:) http://www.fremantleports.com.au/Operations/Harbourcams/Pages/Harbourcam14.aspx
"No life is so happy and so pleasant as the life of the well-govern'd angler."