TC Laurence - Whats the prediction
Submitted by Adam Gallash on Thu, 2009-12-17 09:20
Well, whats everyone thoughts, is he going to go out to sea and rebuild to come back down near K-town or Exxy or has he run out of puff? Nice little cat 5 at one stage there.
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Goatch
Posts: 1011
Date Joined: 03/07/07
I reckon it's gonna track down
the coast , where it makes landfall ???? Dampier hasn't had a big blow for a while but still may be a bit early , how's the water temp off Karratha
Just one more cast , honest !!!
wayno05
Posts: 80
Date Joined: 24/10/09
Nice little storm....
Looks like a nice start to the wet for the kimberleys hope it lowers instensity before it tracks near derby but its still being persistent atm its dragging in heaps of moisture from the north so maybe when or if it hits water again might do a u turn back up the coast but the trough out to the west most likely send it back inland past Broome..
small but very impressive system..
PilbaraBrad
Posts: 3628
Date Joined: 16/05/07
yep, i wish the TAB ran a
yep, i wish the TAB ran a bet on cyclone tracks, i prety much guessed it would cross the coast up north, move back out to sea and smash us by chrissy, so far things are looking to shape up exactly that way
Darrin
Posts: 41
Date Joined: 02/02/09
Not looking good
I think you going to be spot on Brad.I will have start looking for shelter for the baot
crasny1
Posts: 7003
Date Joined: 16/10/08
Bugger
Driving down to Exxy from Karratha for Xmas and might be blown off the road with the boat in tow.
I also recon between here and Onslow.
Neels
"I would like to die on Mars. Just not on impact!!" _ Elon Musk
Brucesta
Posts: 1721
Date Joined: 29/05/09
Between 80 mile beach and
Between 80 mile beach and Port Smith it'll make land once again probably on wednesday next week as a cat 3, still be sunshine for chrissy in K-Town.
We'll get our pearler in March, F-ing huge cat 4 storm that'll pass over the top and destroy all the FIFO camps so the bastards can't come back for a while and leave our town to be normal for a few weeks :)
Las Vegas - Rolling the dice and trying your luck. 1M+ Barra summer target. 100kg Black Marlin winter target
crasny1
Posts: 7003
Date Joined: 16/10/08
LOL
Neels
"I would like to die on Mars. Just not on impact!!" _ Elon Musk
Bodie
Posts: 3758
Date Joined: 05/11/07
ktown at cat 3 :)
ktown at cat 3 :)
PilbaraBrad
Posts: 3628
Date Joined: 16/05/07
nah they rarely hit k town,
nah they rarely hit k town, Pardoo is a cyclone magnet, either there or whim creek
ill put 20 on pardoo station
couldntcatchacold
Posts: 357
Date Joined: 17/05/09
Starting to get windy and
Starting to get windy and rainy up in woody woody we must be coppin side effects sitting in my donga with a cold one watchin the lightning its magical never seen lightening like it but i really need to do my washing :P
I wanna get free! im gonna get free! right into the sun!
HuggyB
Posts: 2515
Date Joined: 03/08/08
Dont really care
I got flown off the rig I was on on full pay for 4 days then got flown home, even caught up with Lucky Tim for a beer in Darwin - good times.
Lazy $20 on PH @ Cat 4/5.
The Terrorist - coming to a fishing spot near you.........
Lucky Tim
Posts: 2536
Date Joined: 28/11/07
ahh I was wondering what
ahh I was wondering what happened to you. Ended up going to the Casino but had to sit outside cos I had thongs on while the others invested their money!
HuggyB
Posts: 2515
Date Joined: 03/08/08
yeah, last minute call up
all set to wander down to look at the boat and boom - debreif, taxi, plane. Didn't have time to scratch my nether regions.....
The Terrorist - coming to a fishing spot near you.........
rubes
Posts: 59
Date Joined: 04/07/09
bout time
That time of the year again,shouldn't see any boats coming from Indo for three or four months.
Brucesta
Posts: 1721
Date Joined: 29/05/09
who's taking the cash, i'll
who's taking the cash, i'll have a lazy 20 on Port smith at cat 3 on wednesday :D
Las Vegas - Rolling the dice and trying your luck. 1M+ Barra summer target. 100kg Black Marlin winter target
crasny1
Posts: 7003
Date Joined: 16/10/08
Braddles
I think you might be wrong!!!!
LOL
Neels
I might have to take a early holiday and get to Exxy before the roads are cactus
"I would like to die on Mars. Just not on impact!!" _ Elon Musk
carnarvonite
Posts: 8667
Date Joined: 24/07/07
BOM
Have to give a hands up to BOM they have been spot on with their tracking and predictions so far.Been talk around Cvon on how long since we had one and if this is going to be the season we get it.
BlueBoat
Posts: 55
Date Joined: 14/08/09
Port Hedland ???
Anyone thinking Hedland could be the spot??? I hope not............
wayno05
Posts: 80
Date Joined: 24/10/09
I hope its not a sign of things to come...
This guy is a tuffy..
bom has it tracking west, east of derby but looking at chops radar from Broome it looks like its over it now..and the SST out west is very hot hes gonna grow huge:(
oh blue boat if boms tracks are on the money very near port hedland..
BlueBoat
Posts: 55
Date Joined: 14/08/09
TC Laurie
Wayno.....mmmm...i am still thinking somewhere between Hedland & Pardoo and I predict late Xmas Eve....but WTF would i know, not even the big man upstairs could pick this one!!! Cyclone party in Hedland......the in-laws arrive on the 22nd for a holiday and a nice welcome to the Pilbara
Dale
Posts: 7930
Date Joined: 13/09/05
I'm flying into Karratha on
I'm flying into Karratha on Monday afternoon, due to touch down at 17:00. I'll be keeping an eye on that for sure.
Cheers
Dale
"Just because you are a Character, Doesn't mean you have Character."
Mr Wolf
Boozehag
Posts: 169
Date Joined: 27/08/07
Whim Creek will cop him
Reckon it will be a Cat 3 and cross through Whim Creek as they havent seen a good one for a while
Dale
Posts: 7930
Date Joined: 13/09/05
Back to Cat 1 @ 11:00
Back to Cat 1 @ 11:00 today.
Cheers
Dale
"Just because you are a Character, Doesn't mean you have Character."
Mr Wolf
Adam Gallash
Posts: 15644
Date Joined: 29/11/05
cat 4
Looks like they're predicting cat 4 at Wallal now
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crasny1
Posts: 7003
Date Joined: 16/10/08
Sorry Brad
Wallal does not equal Pardoo. LOL
Nice to catch up for a couple and get the piss taken out off me.
Should always try to have some social get togethers and get to see some faces.
Best of luch with the new venture if I dont see you again mate. (hopefully -- the mug is getting as old as me now-- LOL)
Merry Xmas and get some of the famous Hedland Bazzas
Neels
"I would like to die on Mars. Just not on impact!!" _ Elon Musk
Rob_Seed
Posts: 219
Date Joined: 09/04/08
fly out day
as long as its no where near Paraburdoo on the 23rd I'm happy Ive got a ticket to freedom on the arvo flight outta here!
Just one more cast
bod
Posts: 2319
Date Joined: 03/05/06
uh oh
Cyclone heads back for second round
ABC
December 20, 2009, 6:42 am
Tropical Cyclone Laurence is expected to develop into a severe cyclone over the next 24 hours.
People in Western Australia's north are being warned to prepare for the cyclone as it moves within 100 kilometres of Broome.
A cyclone warning has been issued for coastal areas from Cape Leveque to Pardoo including Broome.The cyclone is a category 2 system and Joe Courtney from the weather bureau's cyclone warning centre says it will gain strength as it moves across the ocean.
"There is a real risk of a major impact, more likely on Monday when it will move south towards the east Pilbara coast," he said."We are expecting this system to develop into an intense system, maybe a category 4 system by late tonight."
Cyclone Laurence has already brought heavy rains and destructive winds to communities and cattle stations across the north Kimberley.Catchments have recorded rainfall of between 100 and 400 millimetres.
Mount Gibson Iron was also forced to shut down its operations on Koolan Island as a result of the cyclone.More than 200 employees working on the site were evacuated earlier this week.
couldntcatchacold
Posts: 357
Date Joined: 17/05/09
Just back from a meeting at
Just back from a meeting at work up in woodie woodie near telfar they say by tommorow we will be on blue alert and its expected to come through us as a cat 4 come wednesday :/ what a great christmas present haha.
I wanna get free! im gonna get free! right into the sun!
Faulkner Family
Posts: 18026
Date Joined: 11/03/08
reminding me of T C Tracey ,
reminding me of T C Tracey , hitting Darwin xmas back many years ago. however it wont be as intence as that one. hope wherever it hits all concerned will be safe .
RUSS and SANDY. A family that fishes together stays together
PilbaraBrad
Posts: 3628
Date Joined: 16/05/07
actually russ, from memory
actually russ, from memory tracey was only a cat 3 when it hit the coast. Houses are built a lot more different these days
jay_burgess
Posts: 4648
Date Joined: 18/08/05
cat 4 on the Australian
cat 4 on the Australian scale, but weak as piss compared with the big Cat 5's that have hit the Pilbara coast over the past decade, Gwenda, Vance, George etc..
Mick
Posts: 501
Date Joined: 28/08/06
So long as it misses Exxy
So long as it misses Exxy I'll be happy. Heading up on Sunday with my brother to chase a coupla bills and then hit Coral Bay for New Years. So bugger off Lawrence.
If the lord did not mean for us to eat fish and game, he wouldn't have made them outta meat
The speed of light is faster than the speed of sound. That's why so many people appear bright...until they speak.
Adam Gallash
Posts: 15644
Date Joined: 29/11/05
eyes open
Will keep my eyes open for ya Mick, got the same plan. :)
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Mick
Posts: 501
Date Joined: 28/08/06
Should be a good one at
Should be a good one at Coral Bay. Hopefully the weather will be good for a coupla days at least while in Exxy. Need to breakin my bro's new Tiagra. Are the bills still getting caught? When are you heading down to the Bay?
If the lord did not mean for us to eat fish and game, he wouldn't have made them outta meat
The speed of light is faster than the speed of sound. That's why so many people appear bright...until they speak.
Adam Gallash
Posts: 15644
Date Joined: 29/11/05
29th
Think we are heading down on the 29th, the missus is sorting it so will wait and see. Might go camp out at 14 mile, will wait and see how feral the bay will be.
Chrissie day and boxing day are looking good at the mo, definately be out boxing day somewhere. Jen had a 150 eat the other day but didn't hookup, apart from that haven't heard much as not many people have been fishing, been pretty bloody average conditions up here.
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WADRay
Posts: 301
Date Joined: 20/12/09
Stuck
We are constructing the new field going in off Exmouth and for some reason everyone out here seems to thing Laurence is gonna bounce and head down further and cause us to run.
Seems im going to miss not only chrissy out here but new years too :(
Stupid cyclone.
jay_burgess
Posts: 4648
Date Joined: 18/08/05
Looks like it's going to be
Looks like it's going to be a direct hit on Wallal downs, and it's bombed out to a cat 5 now... 285kph wind gusts - FAAAAAARRK.
Bodie
Posts: 3758
Date Joined: 05/11/07
yep its gonna pack a punch
yep its gonna pack a punch alright!
jay_burgess
Posts: 4648
Date Joined: 18/08/05
53 knot wind gust so far at
53 knot wind gust so far at Mandora, this is going to get interesting.
jay_burgess
Posts: 4648
Date Joined: 18/08/05
104 knot sustained wind
104 knot sustained wind gusts at Mandora at the moment. Eye just moving over the station as we speak...
Adam Gallash
Posts: 15644
Date Joined: 29/11/05
sky
The sky has changed colour a few hours ago here and there's a buzz in the air, can just tell when a cyclone is about, even though its hundreds of km's away. Must be pretty wild up that way!
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jay_burgess
Posts: 4648
Date Joined: 18/08/05
make that 110 knots now...
make that 110 knots now...
HuggyB
Posts: 2515
Date Joined: 03/08/08
I hope
they've pegged everything down tight cos thats fairly well blowing!
Hopefully the damage it causes is only superficial and everyone in the area is without incident.
The Terrorist - coming to a fishing spot near you.........
couldntcatchacold
Posts: 357
Date Joined: 17/05/09
yellow alert now at woodie
yellow alert now at woodie woodie just southwest west of telfer cat 2 at best they tell us the dongas are cat 3 rated but we will see were already nearly up to water at our doors haha
I wanna get free! im gonna get free! right into the sun!
HuggyB
Posts: 2515
Date Joined: 03/08/08
Still getting Foxtel signal?
LOL.....the rig I was on was rated Cat3-4 but they flew us off pretty quick.
If its not too dangerous, I'd check the tie downs on your donga! And then put anything valuable up off the floor incase the water gets in.
The Terrorist - coming to a fishing spot near you.........
couldntcatchacold
Posts: 357
Date Joined: 17/05/09
already check em mate and
already check em mate and yeh still got foxtel were not meant to be hit till 1pm tommorow we should keep power we have cyclone rated generators but its up the sparkys everythings off the floor just waiting for some tape to tape my window up :P clouds outside are unreal look like gthere bout to unleash hell
I wanna get free! im gonna get free! right into the sun!
callum
Posts: 417
Date Joined: 29/10/08
start
great way to start your FIFO career :P
happy fishing
crasny1
Posts: 7003
Date Joined: 16/10/08
And the price goes to Brucesta and Adds
But because Brucesta expressed his opinion earlier he is the winner.
Ill pm you Bruce.
Neels
"I would like to die on Mars. Just not on impact!!" _ Elon Musk
Brucesta
Posts: 1721
Date Joined: 29/05/09
woo hoo! nice to see that my
woo hoo!
nice to see that my years up here have paid off with cyclone predicting. Cheers for the lure Neels, PM waiting for you mate!
Las Vegas - Rolling the dice and trying your luck. 1M+ Barra summer target. 100kg Black Marlin winter target
couldntcatchacold
Posts: 357
Date Joined: 17/05/09
Were on red alert now locked
Were on red alert now locked in my room for next 12 hours smoke alarms coming down haha
I wanna get free! im gonna get free! right into the sun!