The Future

In 1998, Kodak had 170,000 employees and sold 85% of all photo paper worldwide. Within just a few years, their business model disappeared and they went bankrupt.
What happened to Kodak will happen in a lot of industries in the next 10 year - and most people don't see it coming. Did you think in 1998 that 3 years later you would never take pictures on paper film again?
Yet digital cameras were invented in 1975. The first ones only had 10,000 pixels, but followed Moore's law. So as with all exponential technologies, it was a disappointment for a long time, before it became way superior and got mainstream in only a few short years. It will now happen with Artificial Intelligence, health, autonomous and electric cars, education, 3D printing, agriculture and jobs. Welcome to the 4th Industrial Revolution. Welcome to the Exponential Age.

Software will disrupt most traditional industries in the next 5-10 years.

Uber is just a software tool, they don't own any cars, and are now the biggest taxi company in the world. Airbnb is now the biggest hotel company in the world, although they don't own any properties.

Artificial Intelligence: Computers become exponentially better in understanding the world. This year, a computer beat the best Go player in the world, 10 years earlier than expected. In the US, young lawyers already don't get jobs. Because of IBM Watson, you can get legal advice (so far for more or less basic stuff) within seconds, with 90% accuracy compared with 70% accuracy when done by humans. So if you study law, stop immediately. There will be 90% less lawyers in the future, only specialists will remain. Watson already helps nurses diagnosing cancer, 4 time more accurate than human nurses. Facebook now has a pattern recognition software that can recognize faces better than humans. In 2030, computers will become more intelligent than humans.

Autonomous cars: In 2018 the first self driving cars will appear for the public. Around 2020, the complete industry will start to be disrupted. You don't want to own a car anymore. You will call a car with your phone, it will show up at your location and drive you to your destination. You will not need to park it, you only pay for the driven distance and can be productive while driving. Our kids will never get a driver's licence and will never own a car. It will change the cities, because we will need 90-95% less cars for that. We can transform former parking space into parks. 1.2 million people die each year in car accidents worldwide. We now have one accident every 100,000 km, with autonomous driving that will drop to one accident in 10 million km. That will save a million lives each year.
Most car companies might become bankrupt. Traditional car companies try the evolutionary approach and just build a better car, while tech companies (Tesla, Apple, Google) will do the revolutionary approach and build a computer on wheels. I spoke to a lot of engineers from Volkswagen and Audi; they are completely terrified of Tesla.

Insurance companies will have massive trouble because without accidents, the insurance will become 100x cheaper. Their car insurance business model will disappear.

Real estate will change. Because if you can work while you commute, people will move further away to live in a more beautiful neighborhood.

Electric cars will become mainstream until 2020. Cities will be less noisy because all cars will run on electric. Electricity will become incredibly cheap and clean: Solar production has been on an exponential curve for 30 years, but you can only now see the impact. Last year, more solar energy was installed worldwide than fossil. The price for solar will drop so much that all coal companies will be out of business by 2025.

With cheap electricity comes cheap and abundant water. Desalination now only needs 2kWh per cubic meter. We don't have scarce water in most places, we only have scarce drinking water. Imagine what will be possible if anyone can have as much clean water as he wants, for nearly no cost.

Health: The Tricorder X price will be announced this year. There will be companies who will build a medical device (called the "Tricorder" from Star Trek) that works with your phone, which takes your retina scan, your blood sample and you breath into it. It then analyses 54 biomarkers that will identify nearly any disease. It will be cheap, so in a few years everyone on this planet will have access to world class medicine, nearly for free.

3D printing: The price of the cheapest 3D printer came down from $18,000 to $400 within 10 years. In the same time, it became 100 times faster. All major shoe companies started 3D printing shoes. Spare airplane parts are already 3D printed in remote airports. The space station now has a printer that eliminates the need for the large amount of spare parts they used to have in the past.

At the end of this year, new smart phones will have 3D scanning possibilities. You can then 3D scan your feet and print your perfect shoe at home. In China, they already 3D printed a complete 6-storey office building. By 2027, 10% of everything that's being produced will be 3D printed.

Business opportunities: If you think of a niche you want to go in, ask yourself: "in the future, do you think we will have that?" and if the answer is yes, how can you make that happen sooner? If it doesn't work with your phone, forget the idea. And any idea designed for success in the 20th century is doomed in to failure in the 21st century.

Work: 70-80% of jobs will disappear in the next 20 years. There will be a lot of new jobs, but it is not clear if there will be enough new jobs in such a small time.

Agriculture: There will be a $100 agricultural robot in the future. Farmers in 3rd world countries can then become managers of their field instead of working all days on their fields. Aeroponics will need much less water. The first Petri dish produced veal is now available and will be cheaper than cow produced veal in 2018. Right now, 30% of all agricultural surfaces is used for cows. Imagine if we don't need that space anymore. There are several startups who will bring insect protein to the market shortly. It contains more protein than meat. It will be labeled as "alternative protein source" (because most people still reject the idea of eating insects).

There is an app called "moodies" which can already tell in which mood you are. Until 2020 there will be apps that can tell by your facial expressions if you are lying. Imagine a political debate where it's being displayed when they are telling the truth and when not.

Bitcoin will become mainstream this year and might even become the default reserve currency.

Longevity: Right now, the average life span increases by 3 months per year. Four years ago, the life span used to be 79 years, now it's 80 years. The increase itself is increasing and by 2036, there will be more that one year increase per year. So we all might live for a long long time, probably way more than 100.

Education: The cheapest smart phones are already at $10 in Africa and Asia. Until 2020, 70% of all humans will own a smart phone. That means, everyone has the same access to world class education. Every child can use Khan academy for everything a child learns at school in First World countries. We have already released our software in Indonesia and will release it in Arabic, Suaheli and Chinese this Summer, because I see an enormous potential. We will give the English app for free, so that children in Africa can become fluent in English within half a year.

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"Just because you are a Character, Doesn't mean you have Character."

Mr Wolf

 

 


opsrey's picture

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OK

Mon, 2016-05-23 14:57

 so what are the reels going to be like in 2050?

and will the line diameters just keep getting smaller and smaller?

will lures succumb to cast able hollagrams ?

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.

Mon, 2016-05-23 15:23

.

crasny1's picture

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AI worries me - what if we

Mon, 2016-05-23 15:21

AI worries me - what if we create a Terminator for example. Elon Musk (Space X and Tesla) is pushing a technology drive with electric cars (self driving), yet keeping a close eye on the AI development (OpenAI).

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sea-kem's picture

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 I've read a couple of

Mon, 2016-05-23 16:50

 I've read a couple of Stephen Hawking books and he reckons a terminator like robot is a real possibility. Humans are constantly looking for better ways to kill each other, and AI is not a far off proposition.

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True AI (independent decision

Mon, 2016-05-23 17:11

True AI (independent decision making to a degree) will be one step further than the current unmanned aircraft systems ie. UAVs used in warfare... Sitting behind a computer and killing people in another country removes the threat of being killed yourself...

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Mon, 2016-05-23 17:12

 

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I think it was Hawkin's concerns

Tue, 2016-05-24 08:53

that led to the caution by Elon Musk et al

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"I would like to die on Mars. Just not on impact!!" _ Elon Musk

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For sale

Mon, 2016-05-23 15:37

Horse and cart  with whale oil lights, nice timber wheels and  a hemp canopy, i need to upgrade...apparently

 

t bone's picture

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 rather interesting read for

Mon, 2016-05-23 15:43

 rather interesting read for sure. 

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 Just have to make sure you

Mon, 2016-05-23 15:48

 Just have to make sure you are in a service industry that will still be required

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Swompa's picture

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Completely agree. With more

Mon, 2016-05-23 20:03

Completely agree. With more and more automated systems coming online, the requirement for plant operators will go down.

Remember those computer geeks that had no friends at school.......

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 Geek = the kid you bullied

Tue, 2016-05-24 14:42

 Geek = the kid you bullied at school but end up working for as an adult...

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 The geek shall inherit the

Tue, 2016-05-24 15:08

 The geek shall inherit the earth..

Swompa's picture

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 I didn't bully anyone at

Tue, 2016-05-24 15:28

 I didn't bully anyone at school, I guess that's why I am unemployed......

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Is arnie still the good

Mon, 2016-05-23 20:04

Is arnie still the good terminator? we might need him.

 

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Trialling

Mon, 2016-05-23 17:05

 Already trialling driverless trucks in Europe. Will revolutionise the transport industry and have wide reaching ramifications for roadhouses, motels etc.

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 So we'll all end up like the

Mon, 2016-05-23 17:15

 So we'll all end up like the people in Wall-e huge fat arsed people who can't think for themselves. Wait a minute I think I just described half of America 

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The movie "Idiocracy"

Mon, 2016-05-23 18:07

The movie "Idiocracy" describes the future best. 

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 So over the top but a solid

Mon, 2016-05-23 18:10

 So over the top but a solid message.

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 And Fweo will still be owen

Mon, 2016-05-23 19:04

 And Fweo will still be owen _??? 

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scano's picture

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They might be trailing driverless trucks in the uk

Mon, 2016-05-23 19:04

 But that is still light years away from being a reality in W.A.

with the amount of network disruptions consumers face, the vastness of our landscape, and the overall complexity W.A throws at the transport industry, I can't see it happening for many years here in Australia. Perhaps long haul deliveries and transport however that is what rail is currently used for. And less chance of things going pear shaped with rail as opposed to road.

 

imagine how easily your Aussie outback thief could isolate a truck (blow out tyres, shoot the fuel tank ect) of an automated truck carrying super valuable cargo.

 

i may eat my own words here though. It seemed like not all that long ago I heard they were releasing iPads. I remember saying "that's nothing more than an oversized iPhone" who in their right mind would buy a "tablet". I now own both an iPad and Samsung tablet. 

 

Scano

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Driverless trucks and trains

Tue, 2016-05-24 18:52

Aren't they being used by the iron ore mines in the Pilbara now ?

uncle's picture

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Can they make time machines

Mon, 2016-05-23 19:08

 Missus and I will go back to the sixtys

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Just move to Mandurah

Tue, 2016-05-24 10:25

Just move to Mandurah

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Swompa's picture

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My genuine thought is that

Mon, 2016-05-23 20:02

My genuine thought is that the worlds dependency on fossil fuels for power generation will significantly decrease over the next decade. Within the last week, Denmark, Germany and Poland generated enough power from natural sources (wind and sun) to have surplus power. They were able to temporarily shut down power stations during the day due to wind and sun.

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 It will eventually Swompa

Mon, 2016-05-23 20:18

 It will eventually Swompa but not in the next ten years. There are some massive business interests involved in fossil fuels, especially oil and gas. They have powerful lobbies in all levels of government and countries (think NRA) and you get the idea. Nuclear power is definitely not the way to go, you get assurances from the muppets who build these plants that they are now safer than ever but I don't buy that. Technologly always has a way of falling down and failing, terrorism, natural forces technical failures etc etc too risky imo

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 I certainly hope so and it

Tue, 2016-05-24 18:50

 I certainly hope so and it probably can't come soon enough. Take into account that several million die each year related to issues from fossil fuel emissions, (god knows what the economic cost of that is) and its effects on global warming, the sooner the better

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Fibre optic 80lb line thinner

Mon, 2016-05-23 20:44

Fibre optic 80lb line thinner then a spider web with live video feed to glasses would be cool but I guess with new tech in the future the fish dont stand a chance

 

Mark_M's picture

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Hmm Udo Gollub

Mon, 2016-05-23 21:08

Is he the next Nostradamus or just a fanatical reader of Marvel comics?

Some interesting notions but he fails to consider the inherant selfishness of man and the deep divisions around the world based on religion, culture and power (both sorts, energy & control).

There is a growing bunch of lunatics who don't want progress, have a bunch of money and a bunch of nasty weapons and are prepared to kill anywhere in the world.

A $10 phone isn't going to solve African problems, there are millions of them starving to death and we are throwing away milk for chrissake. World class education on a $10 phone :-) spare me!

GGs's picture

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No a $10 phone wont solve the

Tue, 2016-05-24 14:12

No a $10 phone wont solve the issues in Africa but the technology developed in making a $10 phone could lead to other discoveries.

The 'Life Straw' is just one example of this kind of progression.

The real issue is reducing the cost of new technologies (including medical ie vaccinations) so they can be implemented in third world countries. Fortunately the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation have a large focus on this issue.

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 But vaccinations are

Tue, 2016-05-24 14:32

 But vaccinations are bad.....

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Does anyone know where the love of god goes, when the waves turn the minutes to hours?

Justin M's picture

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Nostradamus is not all he is

Tue, 2016-05-24 18:53

Nostradamus is not all he is cracked up to be but I digress...

Heh, forget the milk, there is a perfectly fine solution to help alleviate these food problems in GM crops, yet thanks to outright Greenpeace misinformation, this is getting by and large held back...nothing like dictating to others who are hungry what they can and cannot eat from your comfy lounge chair and well fed priviledge. 

chris raff's picture

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 Well the “ Moodies App “ 

Mon, 2016-05-23 21:27

 Well the “ Moodies App “  has some credibility ,  it just confirmed as suspected after consecutive analyses my mrs does have a multiple personality disorder .

Not much point speculating the future of the world prior to the US presidential elections  

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Haha don't have much time

Mon, 2016-05-23 21:53

Haha don't have much time left Dale. But don't worry the aliens are very close to showing up and sorting us all out.

Justin M's picture

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 Haha, they'd take one look,

Tue, 2016-05-24 18:54

 Haha, they'd take one look, roll their eyes and go home. 

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Waaay back when

Mon, 2016-05-23 23:48

A very good number of years ago I was advised not to get to involved with the internal combustion engine using petrol for fuel, as this technology was going to be replaced within the next couple of years because all car engines where going to be powered by hydrogen recovered from salt water which was going to be as cheap as chips.

Yawn, I'm still waiting for that great day, I was also told by the same person that the male of all species would no longer be required to impregnate the female of the species to bring about reproduction of such species as this would all be done in a test tube.

I called him a heretic and walked away from him, sheeesh the very idea of such a thing sends a chill down my spine.

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 An interesting mix of things

Tue, 2016-05-24 08:29

 An interesting mix of things that are likely and pretty close, things that are unlikely or a long way off, and some things are are just not going to happen.

What's missing of course are the truly disruptive changes that no-one predicts.  

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"The price for solar will

Tue, 2016-05-24 10:19

"The price for solar will drop so much that all coal companies will be out of business by 2025"

I lost interest after this punch line.

 

 

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 You can install your own

Wed, 2016-05-25 06:09

 You can install your own hydrogen fuel cell these days, complete with hydrogen generation which uses solar to convert water to hydrogen, then this powers the plant. Only takes up around 2x2m of space and a lot of stations are using them.

 

 

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Mulie

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 Massive solar banks all over

Tue, 2016-05-24 10:41

 Massive solar banks all over Europe. They seem to have taken to it in a big way. You see them everywhere.

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Does anyone know where the love of god goes, when the waves turn the minutes to hours?

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Lets talk in 9 years time,

Tue, 2016-05-24 15:23

Lets talk in 9 years time, and see how many coal companies are around....

pelagicyachts's picture

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I think 3d printing is set to

Tue, 2016-05-24 11:56

I think 3d printing is set to be mainstream shortly - this will be quite disruptive, think of DVD players - started at 600ish when they were first released, now 30 bucks in Woolies,
in a few years I will be able to reprint all the sprinkler jets in my backyard that the dog chews constantly - look out Bunnings!
jeez might even print the dog a 3d bone.....

GGs's picture

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(No subject)

Tue, 2016-05-24 14:04

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.

Tue, 2016-05-24 15:22

.

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Solar and wind ?

Tue, 2016-05-24 16:51

 Do people really believe we can store enough energy in batteries to supply cities when the wind doesn't blow and day is night ????

How long do lithium batteries last, cost and take space. I here you say that walls can be converted into storage space, yes i saw that on catalyst, Impressive indeed.

As one commented, pity the fish in the future because there will be nowhere to hide !!

I am in the power industry and even the likes of Marble bar and Nulligine still need back up power for when a cloud goes over, you would be surprised at how much efficency is lost just by that alone. The size of the solar farms are quite large and still don't power the townships. In time god knows what this planet will be like, but i think warfare will always be with us, especially with more people living and breeding in 3rd world countries as suggested.

Swompa's picture

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 I am surprised that more

Tue, 2016-05-24 17:12

 I am surprised that more towns don't have wind generators, much like Bremer Bay. Surely one generator for Lancelin, Cervantes with a couple in Jurien supplying Green Head and the same in Dongera supplying Leeman. Plenty of wind up there would save millions in diesel... 

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Not so long ago, Horizon

Wed, 2016-05-25 08:29

Not so long ago, Horizon Power ran a Tender for Cue, Meekatharra, Mt Magnet, Wiluna, Sandstone and Yalgoo Power Supply (they are off the grid). The Tender started off requesting a hybrid solution (Solar/Wind and Diesel/Gas)

Once the numbers started to come in, and they saw how much it was going to cost, renewables was dropped out of the Tender, and it all went back to mainly Diesel. The contract was let, with no renewable component.

No small town is going to pay 80c/kWh, and no govt is going to add to the already massive subsidy's.

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 Google    "Germany pays

Tue, 2016-05-24 17:34

 Google    "Germany pays people to use electricity"  only happened few weeks ago ( ill see if i can find the article)

 

why in our climate Australia would we not be pushing harder for renewable energy, wind waves and sunshine we have plenty of all 

 

http://www.sbs.com.au/topics/science/earth/article/2016/05/12/germany-had-so-much-renewable-energy-sunday-it-had-pay-people-use-electricity

Dale's picture

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✨⚡️

Tue, 2016-05-24 17:55

 We would probably have more wind turbines by now if Tony Rabbit didn't ban them because he didn't like them.

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Because the public scream

Wed, 2016-05-25 08:17

Because the public scream blue bloody murder when electricity prices rise from 30c to 31c/kwh.

If you want tidal, solar and wind, expect to pay in excess of 80c/kWh.

Renewables are always good fun until someone has to pay....

Tony didn't ban Wind Power, so that argument is void.

sea-kem's picture

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 There's that new tidal

Wed, 2016-05-25 06:15

 There's that new tidal system that's just been installed of the coast.

http://arena.gov.au/project/perth-wave-energy-project/

Pretty cool if it can be expanded.

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Swompa's picture

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 I don't know why they

Wed, 2016-05-25 07:26

 I don't know why they couldn't encorporate tide and wind generators into the same platform. Surely wave generator could bob up and down subsea with wind up top

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 There's several Australian

Wed, 2016-05-25 10:52

 There's several Australian companies operating in the low countries in Europe that went there and now trade successfully in tidal power after being unable to secure funding here in the mid 90's from the Labor gov (who were also trying to push Australia as a "smart" country - go figure).

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Mulie

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 Hit the nail on the head

Wed, 2016-05-25 09:43

 Hit the nail on the head there Twicther. (Try saying that name 3 times quickly) 

The future is definitely in a much more efficient storage device. I believe tesla has some really innovative products in the pipeline.

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Does anyone know where the love of god goes, when the waves turn the minutes to hours?

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Sandfire Resources, in

Wed, 2016-05-25 10:10

Sandfire Resources, in association with Juwi and KPS Power are installing a 10MW solar facility at the moment, near Meekatharra.
It has a Lithium battery bank, capable of delivering 6MW for 20 minutes.
The banks are huge (2x40ft Sea Containers), and very complex, but its a step in the right direction, albeit, and a very heavy cost.

Without the Battery banks, the project simply would not work.

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True subaquatic,

Wed, 2016-05-25 08:30

True subaquatic,

Moking's picture

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 The Australian Goverment is

Wed, 2016-05-25 11:15

 The Australian Goverment is already talking about fazing out alcohol by 2050. Slowly you will see alcohol become as bad as smoking, price wise and for your health.  If it already isn't.

Islamic Immigration will flourish in Australia- I will go to my grave knowing that Australia will one day become an Islamic Country.  It is inevitable!

 

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GGs's picture

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I just spent about 5 minutes

Wed, 2016-05-25 14:01

I just spent about 5 minutes trying to find any source that mentioned an alcohol faze out by 2050 in Australia and came up blank. Where did you hear this?

As for the second part ill get the popcorn...

chris raff's picture

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 Durries and alcohol are the

Wed, 2016-05-25 14:19

 Durries and alcohol are the govt's  ( cartel’s ) cash cow .. not a chance in hell of being phased out or made illegal unless they move into the meth market first .

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devhay's picture

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No chance, they make too much

Wed, 2016-05-25 15:13

No chance, they make too much money off of it all..

With medical marijuana being passed now it wont be long before they go the way of America and legalise that for a profit too

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Justin M's picture

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Considering it already costs

Wed, 2016-05-25 15:37

Considering it already costs the country $14 billion  alcohol is already seen as pretty bad for your health and wallet. Doubt very much it will be banned though, just better measures aimed at reducing its toll overall in society  

 

As for your second comment, how many people migrating and also those already in Australia do you think are Muslims?

 

**Been reading its closer to $36 billion overall. 

 

Jackfrost80's picture

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I'm more worried about being

Wed, 2016-05-25 16:11

I'm more worried about being invaded by the Chinese (but not worried about that at all)

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sea-kem's picture

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 yep I'd be more concerned

Wed, 2016-05-25 16:25

 yep I'd be more concerned about regional conflict than a few radical muppets. Most of them are rounded up before they do major harm, I reckon the services do a pretty good job of this. The Martin place incident was more of a case of an unhinged individual than terrorism. The Chinese are doing a good job of pissing off just about every other regional neighbour with their claims on fishing and oil and gas grounds. 

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What about the poor guy who worked for the police

Wed, 2016-05-25 17:12

A 16 year old kid (if I remember his age right) killed a guy that worked for the police a short while back. Some of the youth of today can be brain washed (radicalized) pretty easy from what I see of them. Another young bloke had bomb making gear under his bed and a couple of others where making planes to set a bomb of on Anzac day at the football I think it was.

I think the people who are employed in the CT roll are earning their money right now keeping all of us safe be you Christian, Muslim, atheist or Sun God worshiper.