http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/meteye/

With the amount of money put into weather forecasting if this is the best effort we can expect back for our (taxpayer) dollars then I think we should look for a better investment because it certainly isn't returning good value.

I am of the view that the money would be better spent on new schools and hospitals. Yes I understand that "it is not an exact science, however for the amount of satellites up in the heavens that you can see of a night you would think that it should be possible to get it right (the forecast that is).

If not then lets stop throwing good money into a best guess situation, my Mums beetle in a match box was more right than the current forecasting, if the beetle was on it's back = sunny weather, if was on it's feet = it's going to rain.

 if it looks even remotely like turning to Doo Doo ( again) 

Its instant head for home for us!

( common sense anyway) 

 It might be NW or possible SE but then again it looks like an Easterly, somewhere between 4 and 20 knots in the morning........

Amd ot might rain, or it will probably not....

.....but the first 2 days of the comp they could not have got it more wrong!

 Get windguru lance. Awesome app accurate. Auden uses it. I swear by it for my tours. Gives you swell period wave period wind the lot. Checked willy as well but knew windguru was going to be accurate. Also you need to study the charts yourself the weather up here is very predictable. Hugh's troughs ridges once you find the pattern you look at the synoptic feel the temps outside and you know what the next day is doing

 Also if you notice willy weather like bouyweater etc is taken from north island prediction. 48miles is a bloody long way away from ol barri town and should never be relied on. In towns like ours your better off using these as guides and study the patterns yourself.has worked for me for nearly 18years now

 For the classic.we knew it was  going to blow out by lunch today and it did.we came in at 3pm

 when you type in karlbarri it says its getting its data from 86.5 km away so the wind would be different. We got caught out doing the same thing in Cervantes. I dont even looking at BOM as predicted forecast can be 40 percent stronger..

 Only way to go.  The problem with abbreviated forecasts is that the wind and wave conditions vary with location and time.  MetEye uses 6km x 6km squares to forecast wind direction and speed every 3 hours.  This way you can tell when a change is going to occur and the difference in conditions between inshore and offshore.

Fishranger can be better as it goes down to hourly.  It uses BOM data as well but MetEye has some restrictions displaying data so only shows three hourly.

There's a big difference between what Sea Breeze is forecasting compared to BOM Meteye.

 for fishing off mandurah, i go outside and see the seabreeze and dont go out. but that is all the time around here, are easterly or west winds best?

 Nothing  better than getting the yak out in prediced 10knot easterlies for it to blow up 18knot sse always keeps it interesting. 

 In summer, the only way you get them is with a low pressure heat  trough. Different story in winter. The actual movement of the trough means everything--this massive bit of low pressure only has to move a couple of km each way to give you totally different results.  Move a few k's west , and you have no wind/light offshores/variables. Move further west, you will have intially fresh/strong E or NE, dropping out. Move just a little east however, inland , and you will have fresh onshores. Just the way it is with narrow troughs. If the trough broadens right out, it makes it easier. Your best ( but hottest) summer weather is with a broad trough well offshore, and staying there. They can become stable with a High established, but as soon as a cold front approaches, even if it is well south, the trough will always move inland with the consequence of strong onshore winds and cooler temps.

Once you get into late March/April, and the weather starts to cool, the heating effect on the land lessens, lessening the pressure gradient. A High established in the bight gives you a more predictable easterly flow, with little or no afternoon breeze. You are no longer reliant on a heat trough to give you offshores.

 I cant believe that people still use willyweather for forecasts

 Have a crack at windyty (windytv app). Been using it only to compare to actuals at this stage and seems pretty good so far. Might start using it proper soon, although the app is a bit clunky until you get used to where to find all the info you're chasing...website is better than app.

Have found WillyWeather to be crap outside metro since it was first released....Metro used to be okay thou, but this year has been off in general I reckon....found BOM and sea breeze to be wrong often this year also.

Inconsistent wind forecast between meteye and sea breeze. Take a look at sunday wind and compare the 2, sea breeze is forecasting much better conditions. 

 They use North Island for actuals at Kalbarri, which is useless apart from scaring you with how hard it can blow out there, especially if it is SSE When Willyweather first turned up, the actuals were from Binnu ( you know, wheatbins on the NWC highway ) which was even more useless. But the actual forecasts are for town, and don't seem to take into account the very localised conditions you get there due to geographical features. I find it, if not always 100% accurate, at least useable, taking into account what I have said above.

 Thought it was supposed to blow it's arse off today, but nadda, still as a mill pond outside just now.

Hi All, this is an interesting thread.

I am the founder of Fish Ranger and saw a lot of traffic coming through from Fishwrecked so thought I’d come and take a look. I found this topic and guessed its probably the source so thought I would say hi and make a few comments…

In answer to Lance55’s original post, Willyweather is predominately a land based forecasting tool. Wind speed off the coast can be significantly stronger than on land, this is especially true when wind blows parallel to the shoreline since lower surface friction over water means wind moves faster. Over the years we’ve become accustomed to looking at weather forecasts in the suburb we launch the boat and expect them to represent conditions on the water but often they don’t. If you are fishing offshore you need to be using a site that gives you forecasts offshore. In situations where the wind blows perpendicular to the shore you won’t notice much difference but as the angle of wind changes the difference will grow. So while Willyweather is good for land forecasts it really isn’t suitable for marine forecasts.

Taxpayers has found an article we wrote to clear up the facts about weather and weather sites so thanks for posting. If you read the full article it should clear up a lot of the confusion. This article includes a diagram that shows where each weather site gets their data which throws a light on various weather sites.

Windguru and Bouyweather use America data from NOAA’s GFS 27km model. This data comes straight out of a computer and is not reviewed by meteorologists. Buoyweather at least gives forecasts over open water. Windytv use the GFS13km model (USA) or the ECMWF 9km model (Europe) depending which you select. Important to remember none of these sites use BoM forecast data. In addition, they don’t change the data or ‘make it more accurate’ which is a common myth, they simply read the data from the file and display it on screen.

The BoM produce a high resolution forecast grid with 6km resolution across Australia (and 3km in VIC/TAS) called the ADFD. Once its created meteorologists in each state manually review and adjust it based on experience with their local weather systems. This is the best (aka most accurate) forecast data for Australia, period. It’s what drives MetEye and is what emergency services use. It’s also one of the main reasons our government spend hundreds of millions a year funding BoM. If better forecast data was available for free on the internet from America then why have BoM?

Important to mention as well that Willyweather do not create forecasts, they simply use ADFD forecasts grids which are the same grids that power MetEye. All they do is read the data and display it on screen for the location you select. Willyweather and MetEye are the same on land – any difference you see is due to rounding off and Meteye selecting the closest 6km grid point which is often not at the exact point you are clicking. If you only need a land based forecast you may as well use Willyweather because its displayed better than Meteye.

As a keen fisherman myself, I founded Fish Ranger (with a team of 15 people) to be the best source of information available. Like every fishermen in the country, I was tired of not knowing which site to use so decided to do something about it. No shortcuts were taken, it simply uses the best data sources, processes them to the highest standards and displays variables fishermen want to see in one place. Weather sites and weather grids are not black arts, its all science and maths and there is a best answer.

I’m happy to answer any questions you have so ask away if there’s something you want to know.

www.fishranger.com.au

Cheers,

Joe

As per above

BOM - Met eye and Bouy weather are the only two i use as they cover the specific area i might be heading.

There are times when I'm sure granny's beetle in the match box takes a lot of beating when it comes to weather forecasting.

I go out it blows its arse off, changed out a set of wiper motors on the Reefy last weekend. I just look at the 4 day synoptic and sea breeze and met eye and wave models than pray to the weather gods and than it normally blows its arse off.

You quite correct of course, I have just had a look at the Fish ranger site and will give it ago to see how accurate it is. I find myself getting the weather like chinbald at times, it's going to be a great day on the water, hell just were did that come from.

 One, for Winderabandi Point, has been approved, awaiting the one for Tamala. I see someone has created one for Kalbarri Offshore, appears to be about 10k's offshore---comparing them for this week, the forecasts appear to be identical, which perhaps means they fall within the same Meteye grid? Perhaps one needs to be created for 10nm offshore, which, if it falls in a different grid, will be more useable?

 Hi Ranmar,

The location at Winderabandi is live and so to is the one you requested at BooraBoogada (you called it Tamala in your last message but I think its the same one?).  You can find it here: 

www.fishranger.com.au/forecast/for/week/at/location/Booraboogada

You should have recevied an email confirming that went live so let me know if you didn't?

The forecast 'grid' is the entire file that covers WA which has forecasts points every 6km Lat and Long.   MetEye uses the same grid.   A cell is one single 6kmx6km square of the grid file. You won't see much variation between adjacent grid cells as change generally occurs over larger distances so if you get a forecast in the rough area you are going it will be satisfactory. 

I can put locations on wherever you fish - whats the furtherst yo would travel out from shore? Is it the 10nm line or do you want to go further?  If you let me know some coordinates where you want locations I'llensure they get added.  Or just give me a rough guide - ie 30km out from Kalbarri.  

Tell me anywhere along the coast I'll add them.

Cheers.

 Good work jgfisho

appreciate all the effort you have gone into explaining all of this and trying to improve the services for what we have already...up to date live forecasting helps us a lot  we often log on to live wind readings when we are offshore (if we can get reception) to know if it's worth staying out or calling it in... failing that we just do what lance55 is talking about with the haze...

 Gyprock you are welcome.  There is too much misinformation out there about Weather and Weather Sites.  I was constantly frustrated by the number of sites and discrepancies and feature sets so did something about it and I see it as an important part of Fish Ranger to try and educate about the topic.

Fishwrecked users I would like to get your thoughts on a new feature I am thinking of developing for Fish Ranger.   As has already been stated, knowing live wind readings really helps to decide if you are going to stay out (or if you are actually going to get out of bed when the alarm goes off!).  The problem with sites that offer live readings is that you only get live data for one location (Fish Ranger / WillyWeather) or you get live data for multiple locations but without forecasts at those locations (Seabreeze).

What about a page where you could see a series of wind charts that have:

1) Live real-time wind data. Seperate chart for each observation station surrounding your area.

2) Forecasts at those locations overlaid on the same charts as the live readings.

This way you would see live-readings and their corresponding forecasts for your whole region.  This would give you a better indication if forecasters have got it right in the general area and so give you more confidence the forecast for your spot (ie especially if you are offshore) is going to be fairly accurate or not on that day.

Additionally, if you know there is a forecast change due to hit your location, you can keep an eye on charts for surrounding stations - say 50km away, and see if hits them on time.  If so then you have more confidence it will hit you at the forecast time as well.  If its early to hit far away stations then it will probably be early to hit you too, and vice versa.

This feature which I'm thinking of calling'Wind Cast' would be a seperate page to the current 'Forecast' page and would probably replace the Tide,Sun & Moon page which would get relegated down the menu priority list. 

What are your thoughts, would this feature be: not useful, OK, pretty good or frigin awesome ?