Willieweather

 Strewth.

willieweather strikes again!

Take day 2 of the Kalbarri Classic as an example.

at one stage today the forecast was for about 5 knots from the North East.

it was stonking in at 20 knots from the South West! We got our butts flogged off ( again) by following the forecast.

they say the info is from BOM, but looking at tomorrow, willie weather says it's going to be pretty good....BOM says it will blow 20 knots in the morning....and from a different direction.

who do you believe????

Whilst we can laugh at this, it does bugger up your day when it's like this, and it happenS all too often.

i know weather forcasting is an inexact science, but look at today's wind graph.....double the forecast all day.

thats not really good enough IMHO.

Look at 3 or 4 different sites and they are all different forecasts.

Rant over!

 

 

 

 

 


Stevo81's picture

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http://www.bom.gov.au/austral

Sat, 2017-03-04 18:56

http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/meteye/

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I agree whole heartedly with you

Sat, 2017-03-04 19:02

With the amount of money put into weather forecasting if this is the best effort we can expect back for our (taxpayer) dollars then I think we should look for a better investment because it certainly isn't returning good value.

I am of the view that the money would be better spent on new schools and hospitals. Yes I understand that "it is not an exact science, however for the amount of satellites up in the heavens that you can see of a night you would think that it should be possible to get it right (the forecast that is).

If not then lets stop throwing good money into a best guess situation, my Mums beetle in a match box was more right than the current forecasting, if the beetle was on it's back = sunny weather, if was on it's feet = it's going to rain.

Tim's picture

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Taxpayers

Sat, 2017-03-04 20:22

Not sure how willie weather relates to tax payer money.
BOM and Meteye have been pretty much spot on when Ive used it over the last few weeks.
 
Have a read of this as it may explain why some sites just dont get it right as often as you would expect - https://www.fishranger.com.au/weather_site_data_source_comparison

Stevo81's picture

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 Interesting link

Sat, 2017-03-04 21:09

 Interesting link

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Thanks for that Tim

Sat, 2017-03-04 21:46

An interesting and helpful read much appreciated.

Swompa's picture

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 Sites like willyweather and

Sat, 2017-03-04 20:28

 Sites like willyweather and sea breeze use BOM and other sources to create the forecast. 

They are private entities.

Bom is the official forecaster and MetEye is their best product in my opinion.

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Tomorrows plan

Sat, 2017-03-04 19:27

 if it looks even remotely like turning to Doo Doo ( again) 

Its instant head for home for us!

( common sense anyway) 

 

 It might be NW or possible SE but then again it looks like an Easterly, somewhere between 4 and 20 knots in the morning........

Amd ot might rain, or it will probably not....

.....but the first 2 days of the comp they could not have got it more wrong!

 

 

 

 

 

tangles's picture

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Windguru

Sat, 2017-03-04 20:12

 Get windguru lance. Awesome app accurate. Auden uses it. I swear by it for my tours. Gives you swell period wave period wind the lot. Checked willy as well but knew windguru was going to be accurate. Also you need to study the charts yourself the weather up here is very predictable. Hugh's troughs ridges once you find the pattern you look at the synoptic feel the temps outside and you know what the next day is doing

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Willywx

Sat, 2017-03-04 20:30

 Also if you notice willy weather like bouyweater etc is taken from north island prediction. 48miles is a bloody long way away from ol barri town and should never be relied on. In towns like ours your better off using these as guides and study the patterns yourself.has worked for me for nearly 18years now

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We have been happy with sea breeze

Sat, 2017-03-04 21:08

 For the classic.we knew it was  going to blow out by lunch today and it did.we came in at 3pm

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Willy weather is fantastic

Sat, 2017-03-04 22:23

 when you type in karlbarri it says its getting its data from 86.5 km away so the wind would be different. We got caught out doing the same thing in Cervantes. I dont even looking at BOM as predicted forecast can be 40 percent stronger..

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BOM and MetEye

Sun, 2017-03-05 06:25

 Only way to go.  The problem with abbreviated forecasts is that the wind and wave conditions vary with location and time.  MetEye uses 6km x 6km squares to forecast wind direction and speed every 3 hours.  This way you can tell when a change is going to occur and the difference in conditions between inshore and offshore.

Fishranger can be better as it goes down to hourly.  It uses BOM data as well but MetEye has some restrictions displaying data so only shows three hourly.

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There's a big difference

Sun, 2017-03-05 06:49

There's a big difference between what Sea Breeze is forecasting compared to BOM Meteye.

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which winds are best

Sun, 2017-03-05 07:57

 for fishing off mandurah, i go outside and see the seabreeze and dont go out. but that is all the time around here, are easterly or west winds best?

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 Nothing  better than getting

Sun, 2017-03-05 09:54

 Nothing  better than getting the yak out in prediced 10knot easterlies for it to blow up 18knot sse always keeps it interesting. 

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 Hi my name is rob............. and I'm a........... fishaholic

ranmar850's picture

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When you are talking easterlies/offshores at Kalbarri

Sun, 2017-03-05 16:49

 In summer, the only way you get them is with a low pressure heat  trough. Different story in winter. The actual movement of the trough means everything--this massive bit of low pressure only has to move a couple of km each way to give you totally different results.  Move a few k's west , and you have no wind/light offshores/variables. Move further west, you will have intially fresh/strong E or NE, dropping out. Move just a little east however, inland , and you will have fresh onshores. Just the way it is with narrow troughs. If the trough broadens right out, it makes it easier. Your best ( but hottest) summer weather is with a broad trough well offshore, and staying there. They can become stable with a High established, but as soon as a cold front approaches, even if it is well south, the trough will always move inland with the consequence of strong onshore winds and cooler temps.

Once you get into late March/April, and the weather starts to cool, the heating effect on the land lessens, lessening the pressure gradient. A High established in the bight gives you a more predictable easterly flow, with little or no afternoon breeze. You are no longer reliant on a heat trough to give you offshores.

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Steep learning curve for me

Tue, 2017-03-07 19:50

 Getting a handle on things hete in WA is taking me time. But thanks for that info. I know we discussed it previously....that haze coming from the SW. thats spot on!

Ill get there...the boat even runs now!!

walloped's picture

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 I cant believe that people

Sun, 2017-03-05 17:23

 I cant believe that people still use willyweather for forecasts

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Date Joined: 26/08/16

Really?

Tue, 2017-03-07 19:48

 I have used it for years over East. For my area in FNQ its spot on nearly all the time.

I sail and knowing about wind is fairly important. Willieweather was plenty good enough for me without going to GRIB  charts and getting all techie.

But as Ranmar says....its a bit different over here.

I am learning from the local blokes....they are the ones with experience. I am a rank amateur here in WA 

Jackfrost80's picture

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Willyweather is great for the

Tue, 2017-03-07 22:38

Willyweather is great for the river especially in the upper reaches.

For the ocean I checkout Seabreeze and Willyweather to get a rough snapshot to plan a day to head out and then use Meteye a couple of days out/the day before to plan launch and return times.

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walloped's picture

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I travel 40-60km offshore to

Tue, 2017-03-21 08:52

I travel 40-60km offshore to the islands west of Carnarvon. Willieweather is of little use and creates a forecast that could be dangerous to those who use and trust it. Using a combination of Buoyweather, as a subscriber, and Met-eye  you can get a reasonable picture of what is expected. The fellas that I associate with all regard willieweather as a bit of a joke in that it will tell you that the conditions are going to be good when the reality is it will be crappy.

I will be looking at fish-ranger with some considerable interest.

ChrisG's picture

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 Have a crack at windyty

Sun, 2017-03-05 20:02

 Have a crack at windyty (windytv app). Been using it only to compare to actuals at this stage and seems pretty good so far. Might start using it proper soon, although the app is a bit clunky until you get used to where to find all the info you're chasing...website is better than app.

 

Have found WillyWeather to be crap outside metro since it was first released....Metro used to be okay thou, but this year has been off in general I reckon....found BOM and sea breeze to be wrong often this year also.

 

 

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Inconsistent wind forecast

Wed, 2017-03-08 06:51

Inconsistent wind forecast between meteye and sea breeze. Take a look at sunday wind and compare the 2, sea breeze is forecasting much better conditions. 

ranmar850's picture

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Don't be thrown by the North island thing

Wed, 2017-03-08 06:33

 They use North Island for actuals at Kalbarri, which is useless apart from scaring you with how hard it can blow out there, especially if it is SSE When Willyweather first turned up, the actuals were from Binnu ( you know, wheatbins on the NWC highway ) which was even more useless. But the actual forecasts are for town, and don't seem to take into account the very localised conditions you get there due to geographical features. I find it, if not always 100% accurate, at least useable, taking into account what I have said above.

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Wed, 2017-03-08 20:02

 Thought it was supposed to blow it's arse off today, but nadda, still as a mill pond outside just now.

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  Fishranger for Rockingham

Fri, 2017-03-17 17:15

  Fishranger for Rockingham was spot on for today- Out there getting d few squid for dinner:

 

https://www.fishranger.com.au/forecast/for/week/at/location/Rockingham

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Hi from the Ranger

Fri, 2017-03-17 12:38

Hi All, this is an interesting thread.

I am the founder of Fish Ranger and saw a lot of traffic coming through from Fishwrecked so thought I’d come and take a look. I found this topic and guessed its probably the source so thought I would say hi and make a few comments…

In answer to Lance55’s original post, Willyweather is predominately a land based forecasting tool. Wind speed off the coast can be significantly stronger than on land, this is especially true when wind blows parallel to the shoreline since lower surface friction over water means wind moves faster. Over the years we’ve become accustomed to looking at weather forecasts in the suburb we launch the boat and expect them to represent conditions on the water but often they don’t. If you are fishing offshore you need to be using a site that gives you forecasts offshore. In situations where the wind blows perpendicular to the shore you won’t notice much difference but as the angle of wind changes the difference will grow. So while Willyweather is good for land forecasts it really isn’t suitable for marine forecasts.

Taxpayers has found an article we wrote to clear up the facts about weather and weather sites so thanks for posting. If you read the full article it should clear up a lot of the confusion. This article includes a diagram that shows where each weather site gets their data which throws a light on various weather sites.

Windguru and Bouyweather use America data from NOAA’s GFS 27km model. This data comes straight out of a computer and is not reviewed by meteorologists. Buoyweather at least gives forecasts over open water. Windytv use the GFS13km model (USA) or the ECMWF 9km model (Europe) depending which you select. Important to remember none of these sites use BoM forecast data. In addition, they don’t change the data or ‘make it more accurate’ which is a common myth, they simply read the data from the file and display it on screen.

The BoM produce a high resolution forecast grid with 6km resolution across Australia (and 3km in VIC/TAS) called the ADFD. Once its created meteorologists in each state manually review and adjust it based on experience with their local weather systems. This is the best (aka most accurate) forecast data for Australia, period. It’s what drives MetEye and is what emergency services use. It’s also one of the main reasons our government spend hundreds of millions a year funding BoM. If better forecast data was available for free on the internet from America then why have BoM?

Important to mention as well that Willyweather do not create forecasts, they simply use ADFD forecasts grids which are the same grids that power MetEye. All they do is read the data and display it on screen for the location you select. Willyweather and MetEye are the same on land – any difference you see is due to rounding off and Meteye selecting the closest 6km grid point which is often not at the exact point you are clicking. If you only need a land based forecast you may as well use Willyweather because its displayed better than Meteye.

As a keen fisherman myself, I founded Fish Ranger (with a team of 15 people) to be the best source of information available. Like every fishermen in the country, I was tired of not knowing which site to use so decided to do something about it. No shortcuts were taken, it simply uses the best data sources, processes them to the highest standards and displays variables fishermen want to see in one place. Weather sites and weather grids are not black arts, its all science and maths and there is a best answer.

I’m happy to answer any questions you have so ask away if there’s something you want to know.

www.fishranger.com.au

Cheers,

Joe

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Date Joined: 22/07/15

hey Joe Lately I've been

Fri, 2017-03-17 16:28

hey Joe

 

Lately I've been using fishranger as it appears to be more accurate than sea breeze. Would like a dedicated app for the mobile platform though, yeah i know you can 'create' a shortcut and emulate the app icon but what it doesn't do is read the hourly winds when you put your finger on the graph.

 

Keep up the great work.

 

 

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Date Joined: 15/03/17

Fish Ranger app

Mon, 2017-03-20 15:47

 Hey Stumpie,  sorry I only just saw this post I didn't get notifeid by email and I was only looking down the bottom. 

Thanks for trying out the site - I can guarantee it is more accurate than Seabreeze - they don't even use BoM data!  They do use BoM data for oservations (ie readings from weather stations) but they don't use BoM's data for wind forecasts.  They proudly state they use BoM data but don't explain further than that.  Seabreese use GFS data from America which is available for FREE on the internet for their wind forecasts ;)

There is already a dedictaed app on the Google Play store now for Android devices.

Apple does need to install the WebApp (iOS app in progress) but it should still show the hourly wind tooltip on the charts.  I'm successfully doing it right now in the WebApp.  Make sure you just gently press the chart and not hold your finger down.  If you hold your finger down it wont work.   Give that a go and let me know.

 

Cheers

Joe

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Date Joined: 15/03/17

new thread for this topic

Tue, 2017-03-21 05:24

All, I've started a new thread for the question on this Fish Ranger feature so please respond there if you have any comments.  It is in:

Forums -> Fishing Discussion -> Your thoughts on a new Fish Ranger feature? 

Brock O's picture

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  As per aboveBOM - Met eye

Fri, 2017-03-17 12:37

 

 

As per above

BOM - Met eye and Bouy weather are the only two i use as they cover the specific area i might be heading.

Posts: 41

Date Joined: 15/03/17

 Brock O, Fish Ranger also

Fri, 2017-03-17 13:10

 Brock O, Fish Ranger also gives offshore forecasts 

 ie   

https://www.fishranger.com.au/forecast/for/week/at/location/Mandurah%20Artificial%20Reef%20Cluster

 in addition, MetEye nor Buoyweather give you real time wind overlays with average and gust speed like Fish Ranger does.   While these are often taken on land (offshore if available), some indication of actuals is better than none. 

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Date Joined: 17/06/10

Thanks Joe

Fri, 2017-03-17 12:38

There are times when I'm sure granny's beetle in the match box takes a lot of beating when it comes to weather forecasting.

Posts: 41

Date Joined: 15/03/17

Its not an exact science

Fri, 2017-03-17 12:57

Megladon, haha that is somewhat true.   Despite using some the worlds most powerful computers to forecast weather we are still not great at it. At this point in our evolution it isn't computing power which limits more accurate forecasts its in having more weather stations to take more measurements.  The better we know the current state of the atmosphere the more likely the forecast will be accurate.  If we could measure the weather every km across the earths surface, and vertically, and feed that into a computer we would have much much much more accurate forecasts, but that isn't going to happen anytime soon.. 

Chinbald's picture

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Every Time

Fri, 2017-03-17 19:48

I go out it blows its arse off, changed out a set of wiper motors on the Reefy last weekend. I just look at the 4 day synoptic and sea breeze and met eye and wave models than pray to the weather gods and than it normally blows its arse off.

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Date Joined: 17/06/10

Fully appreciate what you are saying

Fri, 2017-03-17 20:41

You quite correct of course, I have just had a look at the Fish ranger site and will give it ago to see how accurate it is. I find myself getting the weather like chinbald at times, it's going to be a great day on the water, hell just were did that come from.

Posts: 41

Date Joined: 15/03/17

Yep give it a go

Sat, 2017-03-18 07:51

 Thanks Meglodon.   Yes give it a go.  We use ADFD forecast grids which are the same the MetEye uses, we don't change the data so if Fish Ranger is out then MetEye is out, we do however show more of it like every hour instead of every third and we show air pressure/cloud cover and real time overlays, amongst other things.  Everything is on the one page, including wind, wave and swell. 

ranmar850's picture

Posts: 1162

Date Joined: 12/08/12

I've created a couple of interest spots already

Mon, 2017-03-20 09:18

 One, for Winderabandi Point, has been approved, awaiting the one for Tamala. I see someone has created one for Kalbarri Offshore, appears to be about 10k's offshore---comparing them for this week, the forecasts appear to be identical, which perhaps means they fall within the same Meteye grid? Perhaps one needs to be created for 10nm offshore, which, if it falls in a different grid, will be more useable?

Posts: 41

Date Joined: 15/03/17

Locations

Mon, 2017-03-20 15:30

 Hi Ranmar,

The location at Winderabandi is live and so to is the one you requested at BooraBoogada (you called it Tamala in your last message but I think its the same one?).  You can find it here: 

www.fishranger.com.au/forecast/for/week/at/location/Booraboogada

You should have recevied an email confirming that went live so let me know if you didn't?

 

The forecast 'grid' is the entire file that covers WA which has forecasts points every 6km Lat and Long.   MetEye uses the same grid.   A cell is one single 6kmx6km square of the grid file. You won't see much variation between adjacent grid cells as change generally occurs over larger distances so if you get a forecast in the rough area you are going it will be satisfactory. 

I can put locations on wherever you fish - whats the furtherst yo would travel out from shore? Is it the 10nm line or do you want to go further?  If you let me know some coordinates where you want locations I'llensure they get added.  Or just give me a rough guide - ie 30km out from Kalbarri.  

Tell me anywhere along the coast I'll add them.

Cheers.

 

 

 

Posts: 507

Date Joined: 25/05/12

 Good work jgfisho

Mon, 2017-03-20 16:05

 Good work jgfisho

appreciate all the effort you have gone into explaining all of this and trying to improve the services for what we have already...up to date live forecasting helps us a lot  we often log on to live wind readings when we are offshore (if we can get reception) to know if it's worth staying out or calling it in... failing that we just do what lance55 is talking about with the haze...

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Date Joined: 15/03/17

no worries

Mon, 2017-03-20 16:32

 Gyprock you are welcome.  There is too much misinformation out there about Weather and Weather Sites.  I was constantly frustrated by the number of sites and discrepancies and feature sets so did something about it and I see it as an important part of Fish Ranger to try and educate about the topic.

 

 

 

 

 

Posts: 41

Date Joined: 15/03/17

Your thoughts on a new Feature??

Mon, 2017-03-20 16:53

 

Fishwrecked users I would like to get your thoughts on a new feature I am thinking of developing for Fish Ranger.   As has already been stated, knowing live wind readings really helps to decide if you are going to stay out (or if you are actually going to get out of bed when the alarm goes off!).  The problem with sites that offer live readings is that you only get live data for one location (Fish Ranger / WillyWeather) or you get live data for multiple locations but without forecasts at those locations (Seabreeze).

What about a page where you could see a series of wind charts that have:

1) Live real-time wind data. Seperate chart for each observation station surrounding your area.

2) Forecasts at those locations overlaid on the same charts as the live readings.

 

This way you would see live-readings and their corresponding forecasts for your whole region.  This would give you a better indication if forecasters have got it right in the general area and so give you more confidence the forecast for your spot (ie especially if you are offshore) is going to be fairly accurate or not on that day.

 

Additionally, if you know there is a forecast change due to hit your location, you can keep an eye on charts for surrounding stations - say 50km away, and see if hits them on time.  If so then you have more confidence it will hit you at the forecast time as well.  If its early to hit far away stations then it will probably be early to hit you too, and vice versa.

 

This feature which I'm thinking of calling'Wind Cast' would be a seperate page to the current 'Forecast' page and would probably replace the Tide,Sun & Moon page which would get relegated down the menu priority list. 

 

What are your thoughts, would this feature be: not useful, OK, pretty good or frigin awesome ?

Posts: 86

Date Joined: 22/07/15

Joe Could I make a

Mon, 2017-03-20 18:20

Joe

 

Could I make a suggestion... would you create a new thread titled "Fish Ranger..." instead of using the williweather thread that way people relate your comments to your service as well as when searching google.

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Date Joined: 15/03/17

Good idea

Tue, 2017-03-21 11:42

Stumpie thats a better idea,  I'll start a new thread now and try to remove the question from this thread to keep answers in one place.

New thread here:

Forums -> Fishing Discussion -> Your thoughts on a new Fish Ranger feature? 

Cheers, 

sonofdarryl's picture

Posts: 7

Date Joined: 20/08/16

 Fishranger is unreal. Was

Mon, 2017-03-20 22:22

 

Fishranger is unreal. Was skeptical until I read your thorough write up on the ‘truth about weather forecast’ and it answered a lot of unanswered questions. You boiled it down with a scientific yet simple explanation of what makes one forecast more accurate than another, and why your site is the best. And it made sense, well played.

The live winds idea sounds good.
Some of my own thoughts.
If you could include some of the live winds that seabreeze doesn’t but willyweather does this would also be good (am aware most of these are inland but they are still a good indicator).

I like the live swell buoys too - height, period and direction for the same reason as live winds.

Make sure on every type of phone you can scroll your finger across and see the winds. ATM on my iPhone I can’t see the full text box to read the winds. If it does work, it only allows me to click on the graph, not slide across it to work out what time the wind comes in etcc - you have to keep tapping your finger trying to get closer to the right spot.

An app may be a good idea. Especially with big buttons that are easy to click with semi wet fingers on a boat. Webpages get painful when you have go to a new webpage to get data for the next location. Especially when that requires you zooming in to make sure the link is clicked correctly. And you have bugger all reception (most WA offshore fishing) so every refresh adds up. Even with home page shortcuts it just feels like a hassle (yes I’m lazy). Thats the one good thing about seabreeze, although its a webpage, all the south west info is on one page. You just have to scroll up and down (which is still possible with wet fingers as you monitor live readings in the sorrounding areas). Even weighing up options in the planning stage, its much easier to assess which boat launch within 100km would be the best option when you can simply scroll up and down to compare the forecast and live winds from all the anemometers in the area, instead of changing links. Especially when you are planning a trip and need to compare 3-4 days worth of fishing.

For that reason I like multiple locations (as an option) per page. I think the most important things to see for most fishos are wind speed/direction, primary swell height and period/direction & live winds. If you could combine those in one graph like seabreeze (which everyone is already used to) i think it would be easier to have multiple locations on one page. Maybe in your user settings you could remove the graphs you weren’t personally interested in (cloud cover, temp, secondary swell etc), then highlight specific areas you wanted to compare (from your saved locations) and see the live winds and predictions of all the places you asked and you can clearly compare. While i love those extras you include , for this purpose it would add too much clutter when comparing areas. I think that is my main drawback for fishranger, I can’t easily compare which area would be best to fish on my day off, for example. But yeah, awesome job.

Posts: 41

Date Joined: 15/03/17

good questions

Tue, 2017-03-21 07:03

Sonofdaryl,  some excellent questions and suggestions here.  If you could move/copy your answer to the new thread I created and I'll answer it there:

Forums -> Fishing Discussion -> Your thoughts on a new Fish Ranger feature? 

 BTW - based on your comment we just made a change so you can slide the wind chart tooltip sideways rather than continually having to press your finger where you want it.   It's live now check it out.