Cyclone predictions north west

Looks like the predictions of an early season cyclone may be close to spot on.

Couple of nice storms sitting out near Christmas Islands, with a tleast 1 expected to form into a cyclone.

Been a while since karratha had one come through :)


carnarvonite's picture

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Wednesday

Mon, 2010-12-13 15:11

Expected to be classed as a cyclone on Wednesday.

Not sure if they classed the other deep depression out there a couple of weeks back a cyclone. Was only there for a few days before it fizzled out.

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still on the US navy watch

Mon, 2010-12-13 15:19

still on the US navy watch list by the looks of it.

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meh

Mon, 2010-12-13 15:21

This one won't be much, just a lot of rain. The next one will be a good one and I reckon Exxy will get it this year. Been some very wierd weather around, lots of willie willies, really humid and hot water temps in the gulf.

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hey guys i am currently up

Mon, 2010-12-13 15:24

hey guys i am currently up this way working offshore. The news we are receiving is saying that it will probably form a cyclone as of thursday and looks like we will be evacuating in the next few days. depending on actions there saying either a Cat 1 but quite a possible cat4. will add to the post as i find out more and if we are leaving etc.

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We are out

Mon, 2010-12-13 15:36

We are out at barrow island and the whole marine fleet is already demobilized with only a handful of vessels left here including the finnmarken.
I personally dont think this one will be that bad but at least they are taking it seriously...

carnarvonite's picture

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Rain

Mon, 2010-12-13 15:41

Here's hoping they get a lot of rain inland around Meeka, Gassy Junction area so we here in Carnarvon get a river to replenish the aquifer, have had bugger all since the flood 2 years back.

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I think the whole Pilbara

Mon, 2010-12-13 22:02

I think the whole Pilbara needs a drink Carnarvonite, there hasn't been much water around north of Mt Magnet for quite a while and you can see it in the wildlife and cattle when you travel up the inland road. The roo's are very light on and the cattle look like leather handbag's full of bones, area's that are usually covered in grass are now bare dust bowls. A few of the station's up that way are hand feeding or de-stocking. Very hard times for the inland folk's at the moment.

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Talking

Mon, 2010-12-13 22:24

Was talking to a couple of long time residents and they are predicting that we will not only get a river but it last for months instead of the usual couple of weeks.

All that is good as long as it doesn't destroy towns and cause any injuries .

The grape grower here are crossing their finger that we don't get any rain for the next month because with all the table grapes coming on stream the added water will cause the grapes to take too much in and split and become unsaleable same goes for the mango growers.

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Rain

Tue, 2010-12-14 02:06

We've been in Tom Price for 15 years now and I have never seen it as dry as it is now , we need rain and lots , me thinks I might get my wish!!!

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Cmon the Rain

Tue, 2010-12-14 05:06

Hope the whole of the Pilbra and Gascoyne get a good steady soak.

Very hard on my friends shooting stock after spending thousands trying to keep them alive.

Rain bring it on!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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Stay Safe

Tue, 2010-12-14 05:09

You guys up there, It's the Ying and Yang of nature, It brings welcome relief to some however it brings it's fury and devastation to others.


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revise prediction

Tue, 2010-12-14 05:47

If the low makes land fall over Exxy then it will be not much, if it stays just off the coast and goes west to east then she will pick up into something solid.  I can see why the rig boys are moving out, but I think she will be just rain - heres hoping.

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Bodie's picture

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its saying the pressure is

Tue, 2010-12-14 12:10

its saying the pressure is rising the closer it gets to land, this usually mean it would lessen the chance of a cyclone?

 

Currently in 995, but going up to 1000 by thursday

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Rain, not wind hopefully

Tue, 2010-12-14 12:18

http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/4day_col.shtml

 

Looking good for a drop of rain, anyway.

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hopefully not too much rain

Tue, 2010-12-14 13:38

hopefully not too much rain either. i am 200kms south of Hedland, surrounded by dry creeks and need to get out on Friday!!!

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990

Tue, 2010-12-14 20:39

990 and below is a cyclone.  This one is getting interesting, just sitting there building.  Some very wierd activity around Exmouth today, calm before the storm!!

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doesnt look like a cyclone

Thu, 2010-12-16 09:29

doesnt look like a cyclone now...

 

But looks like some decent rain coming tho??? any yet up that way?

carnarvonite's picture

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Over night

Thu, 2010-12-16 09:55

Had light rain nearly all night, 7 mm in the gauge. Looking at the weather radar there is a heap more to come in a couple of hours

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Just got 19mm

Thu, 2010-12-16 09:56

We just got 18.6mm in about 10 minutes....other than that, not much!!

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what do you expect to happen

Thu, 2010-12-16 10:36

what do you expect to happen once the this passes? (mainly for exmouth) will it be fairly calm?

what about the fishing? do the fish come on the bite a lot more?? 

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I flew into karratha a couple

Thu, 2010-12-16 12:15

I flew into karratha a couple years back. cat 5 heading strait for k-town. Turned off at the last min.

Totally stuffed the fishing!!! Got f-all all week!

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carnarvonite's picture

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After

Thu, 2010-12-16 13:16

As Marc says, its usually very quiet after the blow. The ground big swell stirs everything up for days after with the fish hiding in reef holes hanging on untill it clears.

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Just heard

Thu, 2010-12-16 15:00

that Exmouth, Shark Bay may Carnarvon  should expect 100klm winds either late this afternoon or tomorrow, bit of a blow coming by the sounds of it.  Hope we all get rain out of this, as the dams in Perth are only 32% filled, fingers crossed for everybody that needs rain, except the high winds.

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Coral Bay had around 35mls of

Thu, 2010-12-16 15:01

Coral Bay had around 35mls of rain last night and some strong winds.   Been bucketing down all day,  no wind, just plenty of rain.  This will stir the fish up next week,  bring it on! 

carnarvonite's picture

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27mm

Thu, 2010-12-16 16:08

Carnarvon has had 27mm from 0900 to 1530 today and plenty more to come. Numerous roads around town flooded due to water not getting away quick enough luckily no damage so far

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Exmouth misses out again

Thu, 2010-12-16 16:27

 

Looks like that umbrella over exmouth is doing its thing again. only about 15mm to date.

Bugger, i wanted to see some of those floodways working again.

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Yeah all its done is made

Thu, 2010-12-16 22:02

Yeah all its done is made the gulf too dirty to spear a trout for dinner on the weekend . . . Ah well

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carnarvonite's picture

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Coming down

Thu, 2010-12-16 22:11

Its still coming down, 79.4mm at 2130 this evening from 0900 this morning. If it keeps up like this expect the NW coast highway to be shut for a few days with all the floodways running.

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don't wish that upon me, i'm

Fri, 2010-12-17 07:58

don't wish that upon me, i'm driving out tomorrow morning and both roads are shut!!!! i'll miss my Muse concert now, not happy....

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carnarvonite's picture

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203mm

Fri, 2010-12-17 09:30

Have had 203mm for the 24 hours, pissed down all night and only slowed to a trickle 10 minutes ago

The NW coastal hwy is closed from the Kalbarri turn off and from Carnarvon north.

Burkett raod through to Exmouth is open but extreme care is needed.

Coral bay south is closed.

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well that should keep all the

Fri, 2010-12-17 12:37

well that should keep all the back packers trapped there for awhile...lol

 

this rain looks like it may even keep coming south to us by the weather charts predictions. Well here comes a wet summer by the looks of it.

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carnarvonite's picture

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Cricket

Fri, 2010-12-17 14:35

Should arrive just in time to disrupt the last day or two of the cricket.

Not much rain since 0900 this morning but a lot of minor flooding round town. Main intersection in town under water, Beaurepaires tyre service under 3 foot of water, some trees down and lots of streets closed and no one hurt is the main thing after a wild and windy night.

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I heard it was record

Fri, 2010-12-17 16:23

I heard it was record rainfalls some where up there on the radio,,some where near Carnarvon got a years quota of rain in a day,,

carnarvonite's picture

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Carnarvon

Fri, 2010-12-17 16:32

It was for here, a years rainfall in 24 hours, usually get 200mm a year. Been a few years since we have got the average though, was very dry round town and worse inland.

The radar show that its been raining inland while we've been missing it during the day and looking at the river conditions shows its rising inland so we should have a river in the couple of days it takes to get here.

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Photos...

Fri, 2010-12-17 19:22

Hey poppy,

 

   Its vic  ..we would love lots of photos of the river if it swells again!!  so good to see that bridge with water under it!!  hope you are still nice and dry..

 

love Vic

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Not much rain down the inland

Fri, 2010-12-17 19:52

Not much rain down the inland road other than a bit of drizzle, got more rain coming out of Broome and going across Roebuck Plains, along with the grasshoppers it just made a mess of the windscreen and truck. I hope the rain moves further inland god know's they need it.

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 sounds like some much needed

Fri, 2010-12-17 22:33

 sounds like some much needed rain has fallen . hope all the livestock get a good feed when the grass starts growing. it will be a great relief for the farmers that have been doing it tough. would be good to see some water flowing under that bridge again

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