Independent Analysis
Submitted by Tom M on Mon, 2022-08-22 08:28
I have worked for decades using data analysis and it concerns me that the recent plan to ban fishing is taken from a report by the body that always intended to change the rules in a significant way.
You can make figures give you any result you want and its not that I don't trust this government I just don't trust any of them.
We need to demand an independent analysis of the information gathered and how it was used to determine the value of it before accepting the result.
____________________________________________________________________________
Tom M
rac
Posts: 99
Date Joined: 14/02/22
yeah i'd like to know if we
yeah i'd like to know if we are engaging a third party independent assessment of the data and proposals.
Jim
Posts: 1335
Date Joined: 05/05/06
I agree, that would be
I agree, that would be something I would donate to.
Bend over
sea-kem
Posts: 14970
Date Joined: 30/11/09
Great post Tom, I'd be keen
Great post Tom, I'd be keen to donate as well. A report that is verifiable and written in layman's terms. I'd accept the results knowing they were independant of a biased government opinion.
Love the West!
Swompa
Posts: 3878
Date Joined: 14/10/12
Statistics show that 1 in
Statistics show that 1 in every 5 babies born is chinese.
If you have 4 kids and want a 5th, chances are high that your 5th child will be chinese.
Thats what the stats say....
sea-kem
Posts: 14970
Date Joined: 30/11/09
Ha ha ha that's gold Paul.
Ha ha ha that's gold Paul.
Love the West!
rac
Posts: 99
Date Joined: 14/02/22
there are a lot of people
there are a lot of people around who read technical papers/research and critically assess the assumptions and conclusions, myself included. but i'm in a different industry and i will have a perceived bias.
to be credible it needs to be from some one who is objective and in the marine sciences or similiar field and preferably did similar work for government organisations elsewhere.
imo recfishwa should be pursuing that avenue on our behalf.
Tom M
Posts: 661
Date Joined: 22/09/15
Not sure about their
Not sure about their background in Marine Science, this is all about the numbers and how they were achieded. My daughter is a data scientist specialising in predictive forecasts we have had some interesting conversation on this subject.
Tom M
BlueKiaser
Posts: 422
Date Joined: 22/04/15
Agenda 2030
Until Oct '21 I had never heard of the demersal stock levels having a time limit of 2030 on them.
Then all of a sudden in the Fisheries Research Report# 316 it is mentioned over 50 times.
And many of those times it is inferred that this 2030 deadline for the stock recoveries has been part of their previous decisions when setting catch benchmarks.
If you know anything about the globalists plans and agenda 2030 then none of these latest proposals should surprise you.
davewillo
Posts: 2398
Date Joined: 08/09/16
I think this thread hits the
I think this thread hits the nail right on the head. I also work with numbers a lot (financial feasibilities) and can make any project work or fail - it's all in the inputs and assumptions. The Premier has said the proposals are based on science and he probably believes that. The flaw is very likely to be within the science itself.
PGFC member and lure tragic
Tom M
Posts: 661
Date Joined: 22/09/15
Agree entirely my daughter
Agree entirely my daughter is a data scientist we have had the same conversation.
Tom M
Shark1
Posts: 1086
Date Joined: 21/05/12
well my numbers say i m
well my numbers say i m still catching snapper
remember all the "research" that was done to make the demersal quota 10 kg rather than 20kg in denham area etc. - 10 greenies bitched - bang change of quota
probably the same research
why is the commercial take not reduced as well?
why is there even any commercial take of any product between jurien and augusta allowed - rec fishing makes/spreads around more money in local economies
Swompa
Posts: 3878
Date Joined: 14/10/12
That is exactly what I wrote
That is exactly what I wrote in my letter to numerous ministers. Why are recreational fishermen competing with commercial fishermen? Shouldn't have commercial operators within cooee of a major city.
tangles
Posts: 1367
Date Joined: 17/12/06
Commercial
Been a long time since I've been on site but this def forced me on!
The commercial sector is getting a 60% cut with a minimum number of hours on the water required to keep their quota which is going to cut out a shitload of small operators that don't have the minimum required hours to save their quota.
60% reduction is a bloody shitload and talking to a mate that wetlines it is going to reduce his quota down to a minimal amount just to stay afloat so before you guys start ripping the commercial sector know what's happening first! Don't just assume! And the charter sector is next on the hit list and it is going to be as savage and as I work on a charter that has been operating for 30 years and has all data and catch logged the restrictions are nothing but a good thing. We see the impact of fishing up here everyday and if you take pink snapper out of the kill box for a trip out the box is pretty well dry!
Whether everyone likes it or not it's happening and for me I'm happy with the outcome it means the fish are looked after the spawning grounds are looked after.
Rec wise for me it doesn't affect me as I fish for bread and butter species and don't actively target demersals
hezzy
Posts: 1521
Date Joined: 27/11/09
couple of points that are
couple of points that are worth pondering in what is the best use of this community resource
wrt liners return to the community for demersals in the west coast is around the 1 million mark ,
charter sector alone is worth around 25 million in the same zone ,
recs dollar return value is well over both of them
commercials get a bigegr % of the current total allowable catch its not a 50/50 split ,
commercials got this bigger slice of the pie by overfishing their TAC for near on 12 years , right before the allocations where granted ?/
while we all agree we need a commercial fleet, there not doing too badly out of this carve up and reduction so far ,, theyw ill fish on while most recs wont if the 9 month ban goes ahead
OFW 11
evil flourishes when good men do nothing
marble
Posts: 775
Date Joined: 03/09/09
The commercial cut is really
The commercial cut is really only 7 tonnes under this plan isnt it ?
PMY 25 Centre Console DF300 Suzuki
tangles
Posts: 1367
Date Joined: 17/12/06
Commercial
Been a long time since I've been on site but this def forced me on!
The commercial sector is getting a 60% cut with a minimum number of hours on the water required to keep their quota which is going to cut out a shitload of small operators that don't have the minimum required hours to save their quota.
60% reduction is a bloody shitload and talking to a mate that wetlines it is going to reduce his quota down to a minimal amount just to stay afloat so before you guys start ripping the commercial sector know what's happening first! Don't just assume! And the charter sector is next on the hit list and it is going to be as savage and as I work on a charter that has been operating for 30 years and has all data and catch logged the restrictions are nothing but a good thing. We see the impact of fishing up here everyday and if you take pink snapper out of the kill box for a trip out the box is pretty well dry!
Whether everyone likes it or not it's happening and for me I'm happy with the outcome it means the fish are looked after the spawning grounds are looked after.
Rec wise for me it doesn't affect me as I fish for bread and butter species and don't actively target demersals
Mick C
Posts: 607
Date Joined: 26/12/13
Third Party Review
Tangles, welcome back, and good to hear from you.
You raise valid points, but in my opinion the main issue is finding the right balance between social, economic and environmental impacts to stakeholders of a Government administrative decision.
I have read the technical report and have serious concerns regarding the estimate of recreational take, and therefore recovery estimates, based on the quality of the base data (I am a scientist that studied applied statistics at university many years ago - I also have a conflict of interest). The “decision” is not made yet, but there are currently only 2 “consultation” options for the recreational sector?
I fully support Tom M’s proposition that the Government derived data is subject to independent third party review by world experts in fisheries population biology. The statistical models used in the report analysis are beyond my current level of technical understanding, and I support independent experts examining the validity of the data to explain and justify the conclusions of the report and the reasons for the decision (the ocean is very big, and how well has the existing population of demersal species been quantified?). Population biology in the ocean is a difficult science, best dealt with by experts.
Australian law allows review of administrative decisions that significantly impact on stakeholders. If it gets to it, I would like to hear the opinion of a Court Judge when all “correct” relevant information is properly presented.
Ability is what you are capable of doing. Motivation determines what you do. Attitude determines how well you do it - LH.
Rob H
Posts: 5796
Date Joined: 18/01/12
Interestingly Rob, your
Interestingly Rob, your anecdotal evidence is the precise opposite of what Fisheries says.
They say that the major problem is the Midwest (Shark Bay to Lancelin) and is specifically pinkies and dhuies
Give a man a mask, and he'll show you his true face...
The older you get the more you realize that no one has a f++king clue what they're doing.
Everyone's just winging it.
wrasse magnet
Posts: 126
Date Joined: 16/10/10
Those looked after spawning
Those looked after spawning grounds you're referring to wouldn't be the ones in Cockburn Sound that will make way for the Outer Harbour are they?
Still waiting for answer on that from minister, my local MP and DPIRD.
wrasse magnet
Posts: 126
Date Joined: 16/10/10
Those looked after spawning
Those looked after spawning grounds you're referring to wouldn't be the ones in Cockburn Sound that will make way for the Outer Harbour are they?
Still waiting for answer on that from minister, my local MP and DPIRD.
Rob H
Posts: 5796
Date Joined: 18/01/12
This is a great idea.Problem
This is a great idea.
Problem though is always, "who pays the piper, calls the tune", need to be careful of who the piper is.
I signed up to participate in the process with RecFishWest, because I did not trust Fisheries to come up with a viable solution.
I thought they were genuinely involving "community consultation"
Give a man a mask, and he'll show you his true face...
The older you get the more you realize that no one has a f++king clue what they're doing.
Everyone's just winging it.
Shark1
Posts: 1086
Date Joined: 21/05/12
recfishwest gets their $$
recfishwest gets their $$ from the state - so who is calling the tune?
Rob H
Posts: 5796
Date Joined: 18/01/12
yes and no
Yes and no.
If you are a member and pay your dues, then it doesnt come from the State.
But the "State", and Recfishwest are now completely at odds.
This will be interesting.
Which side of the fence are you? Do you support Recfishwest by being a member, or like alot of people who don't but also complain that RFW are not representing them?
Give a man a mask, and he'll show you his true face...
The older you get the more you realize that no one has a f++king clue what they're doing.
Everyone's just winging it.
hezzy
Posts: 1521
Date Joined: 27/11/09
definitley need a review of
definitley need a review of their science data
good read this one
o what the hell
happened since 25th July 2019 ?
WA's world-class fisheries management improves sustainability of fisheries
Latest scientific research shows sustainability of WA fisheries has increased
97 per cent of the State’s fisheries are not at risk from the effects of fishing activity, up from 95 per cent
Fisheries scientists are highly-regarded internationally for innovative research
Western Australian fisheries that support jobs in our State’s commercial fishing industry and its many world-class recreational and indigenous fishing experiences along more than 12,500 kilometres of coastline, have enjoyed another successful year.
The latest stock assessment reports show the sustainability of WA fisheries has increased, with 97 per cent of fisheries not at risk from the effects of fishing activity - up from 95 per cent in the 2016-17 report.
WA’s fisheries are in a healthy condition, except a small percentage of stocks affected by adverse environmental conditions that are now subject to recovery programs.
Recovery of Abrolhos and Denham Sound scallop stocks, Exmouth Gulf brown tiger prawns and Shark Bay blue swimmer crab stocks after the 2011 extreme marine heatwave have helped lift the latest status report to 97 per cent.
Department of Primary Industries and Regional Development (DPIRD) scientists and managers are highly regarded internationally for the development and application of ecosystem-based fisheries management which includes a big picture analysis of all environmental influences, as well as stock status.
For further detail, the Status reports of the fisheries and aquatic resources of Western Australia 2017/18 are now available on the DPIRD Fisheries website at http://www.fish.wa.gov.au
Comments attributed to Fisheries and Science Minister Dave Kelly:
“In WA we take our sustainable fisheries credentials very seriously and because of this we are a world-leader.
“I am very pleased the stocks in WA commercial and recreational fisheries are in a healthy position and 97 per cent of them are not at risk from fishing activities.
“Last year the status reports showed 95 per cent were not at risk and the increase recorded this year is mostly due to some stocks impacted by the 2011 marine heatwave now reaching recovery, such as Abrolhos Islands scallops and Shark Bay scallops and crabs.
“It’s important that when the science shows us a stock has been impacted by environmental conditions that we take steps to help it recover through adaptive fisheries management.”
Minister's office 6552 6100
Last modified: 25/07/2019 9:31 AM
OFW 11
evil flourishes when good men do nothing
selthy
Posts: 294
Date Joined: 27/05/11
You may be onto something
You may be onto something here. Does anyone live in the Bassendean region where Dave Kelly is their local minister?
He continues to hold several ministerial portfolios and is obviously a respected and influential member of parliament. Moreover, he appears rather pro recreational fishing, with several media statements published circa 2019 supporting our community... including making some changes to recreational catch, store and cook rules to promote recreational fishing tourism. Check them out here www.mediastatements.wa.gov.au/Pages/Ministers/Dave-Kelly.aspx
Maybe Recfish could get in his ear too.
Here is just one example of the comments attributed to the fisheries minister during that time...
A licence-free day will help first time fishersComments attributed to Fisheries Minister Dave Kelly:
"The McGowan Government understands both the social and economic value that quality recreational fishing experiences deliver in WA - including health and relaxation benefits.
"As Fisheries Minister, I am committed to providing quality recreational fishing experiences to West Aussies, through initiatives including artificial reefs and fish restocking projects.
"We have so many diverse fishing experiences across the State and we are keen for tourists from overseas and around Australia to come on holiday here. We are working to expand recreational fishing opportunities that give visitors and even local tourists greater enjoyment.
"Gone Fishing Day is designed to encourage as many people as possible to participate, so I encourage you to get out there and enjoy the day and, for any first-timers, have fun and give it a go."
Swompa
Posts: 3878
Date Joined: 14/10/12
Wasnt he boned from the
Wasnt he boned from the ministory when he put commercial cray fisho's off side?
sea-kem
Posts: 14970
Date Joined: 30/11/09
Ok so just had this link
Ok so just had this link sent to me by a good friend, maybe this has already been explored but thought I'd throw it up anyway.
My mate used to be chief of staff for one of the current ministers and has a good idea of how the system works, anyway he said to petition the upper house, the one's to the lower house go nowhere (his words)
Haven't had a good chance to look at the page properly but maybe some of the more esteemed members on here might like to have a look and comment.
https://www.parliament.wa.gov.au/webcms/webcms.nsf/content/legislative-council-legislative-council-guide-to-petitions?#:~:text=is%20a%20petition%3F-,What%20is%20a%20petition%3F,requests%20to%20review%20administrative%20decisions
Love the West!
Tom M
Posts: 661
Date Joined: 22/09/15
I think the petition is the
I think the petition is the way to go and should be along the lines of an independent review of data.
I also think that we will only get 1 crack at this and that it needs to be a single petition representing the recreational fishers.
Who is best placed to raise the petition and submit it?
Is there anyone on this site close enough to Recfish admin or CEO to float this idea?
Tom M
Formula 233
Posts: 30
Date Joined: 06/12/15
Perfect Hezzy.
It clearly showcases the statistical lies and green agenda.
Just as with the Sharkbay 50% justification based on COVID fishing pressure that will never be repealed. Two green bins and we shut down the entire Northern Fishery by 50%.........
If anyone knows where to find the 2030 sustainability targets for global marine management, then we'll be able to understand the playbook that the Green Pollies are reading from - this is the benchmark for base analysis.
"The Jessica" was on 6PR spruking about the "Last Dhufish".....What happens after we catch this last fish. Give me a break....Why do we even give this muppet oxygen anywhere in WA - not sure if she's even Australian, dicataing policy to Government and having no third party external peer review on her assumptions and targets.
It's a whitewash - and it's going to kill multiple West Australian small business owners who know that, no matter what they do to survive in business, will unltimately have to close the doors.
What a fuckn crime, perpetrated by Pew, Labour and the Greens against hard working West Aussies who respect and care for THEIR resource - which in 2019 - was one of the greatest in the world at 97%. Now we're talking about - 'The last Dhufish' ????
Tackle stores - gone, bait shops- gone, boat yards - gone, mechanics - into the resource sector, tourist destinations - closed, charters - finished.
The West Australian Recreational fishing sector has begun bleeding out slowly - like a gutshot soldier - and, under this government and their lies, will continue to do so.
Pitchfork 'em - every 50 years. It keeps the bastards honest. Starting with "The Jessica".
uncle
Posts: 9474
Date Joined: 10/02/07
Yeah it's looking very grim
This Jessica Muppet has been at it for years, isn't her hubby into fracking?
all aggressive fish love bigjohnsjigs