TC ?? Carlos
Submitted by crasny1 on Sat, 2011-02-19 11:56
Sick off the long Cyclone prediction thread. To long. Time for Carlos.
Might with the warm temps turn into a real threat.
I am an old Rally Oz person and poor carlos Sainz use to crash his Toyota Celica all the time here in Oz, so we nicknamed him El Rolladoor!
This might just El rolladoor all the way down here and with the hot water turn into at least a Severe TC, perhaps Cat4-5 IMO.
No predictions but looks like it might be no fishing for some time up here, but the water looks great wind wise for Sunday. Might give it a bash prior to the willie willie.
Neels
Tony Halliday whats your thoughts?
____________________________________________________________________________
"I would like to die on Mars. Just not on impact!!" _ Elon Musk
crasny1
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Date Joined: 16/10/08
See image
But I dont know how to post them directly on the post, ie only know how to post the link.
http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/viewer/index.shtml
Neels
"I would like to die on Mars. Just not on impact!!" _ Elon Musk
Lucky Tim
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no big long links either
no big long links either that require you to scroll across the page as well as down. That makes me tired.
But it looks like it might sneak a bit closer than Dianne did. Exmouth in Feb, love it!
crasny1
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Sorry Tim
I thought it was a screen shot of Mon or Tuesday. Didnt realise it would go for the full play!!
Sorry mate.
Neels
"I would like to die on Mars. Just not on impact!!" _ Elon Musk
crasny1
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Tim and adds
How do you link these shots as pickies on here?
I too think watch out Exxy. Sick off wet and tie downs and clean up, and I am not even in poor Carnie.
Neels
"I would like to die on Mars. Just not on impact!!" _ Elon Musk
Lucky Tim
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not sure mate, need to get
not sure mate, need to get one of the boffins onto it.
Gonna be a pretty ordinary end to this week if the forecast stays as is.
Just what we need.
scotto
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seabreeze
seabreeze (even though they are useless...) long range forecast says get the fruck out of gnaraloo and shark bay next wed/thurs!!
Tony Halliday
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Date Joined: 14/06/07
yip he will be a Cat 1 by
yip he will be a Cat 1 by tomorrow again and the will cruise parralle to the coast getting stronger, till he finds the biggest bunch of grey nomads to blow away
loads of hot water close to the coast again up north. Hold on folks
Tony Halliday: ~Meals on Reels ~
It takes a strong fish to swim against the current. Even a dead one can float with it
"It is always in season for old men to learn." Aeschylus (525-456 BC)
"In a mad world only the mad are sane." Akira Kurosawa (1910-1998)
marble
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We`ll be right in Exxy then
We`ll be right in Exxy then Tony . . . No grey nomads here at the moment , its lovely and uncrowded . . . If only the weather wasnt so pox :-(
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crasny1
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Come on Tony
Landfall????!
I think smack down cyclone Alley. Ie Kcity to Exxy!!
Fav lure bet!!!!?
Mines cheap, Any gold twisty, but if your go up so will mine (andamans sound allright to me)
LOL.
Neels
"I would like to die on Mars. Just not on impact!!" _ Elon Musk
crasny1
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Mr Halliday you Jaap
The bets on, where is your reply.
Neels
PS PM me whenever you are up this way. Some ggod spots
"I would like to die on Mars. Just not on impact!!" _ Elon Musk
Oracle
Posts: 355
Date Joined: 22/11/10
Its all just POO!
We only get a week or two a year to hit Exxy and this lovely weather is on the door step. Can't even hit the creeks as it's just so dirty. The only bright side is these no flies as they've been blown into next week..... personally would welcome them back at this stage!
Adam Gallash
Posts: 15644
Date Joined: 29/11/05
Yep
Another low building behind Carlos as well, would expect it to go cyclonic by late next weekend seeing as our predictions so far have been right. Thinking were in line for a good smashing here in Exxy looking at current tracking of Carlos.
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Dicko
Posts: 219
Date Joined: 07/10/10
Not what I want to hear!!
I'm not particularly excited by all this talk anymore...I have severe fishing withdrawls!!!!!
nana nana nana nana fishing!!!
carnarvonite
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Date Joined: 24/07/07
Evacs
Looks like all those [including me and family] who have had to evacuate will be staying away a lot longer than planned.
SES vollies fly out today but will be back on Wednesday to cope with the expected third flood.
River peaked at just over 7 metres yesterday , dropped a bit over night and has risen back to 7 again today with another peak due Tuesday.. Never ending, give one the tommy tits
Adam Gallash
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Yup
Haven't been fishing since Chrissy, only been crabbing once and all the muddies have soft shells due to the heat. Just getting beyond a joke.
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dodgy
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Same further north too. I've
Same further north too. I've been out twice this year for only a few Jacks. Racking up the OT at work while the conditions are like this.
Does anyone know where the love of god goes, when the waves turn the minutes to hours?
abeldog
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Adam, What's it
going to do for the forthcoming fishing comps, what's the water going to be like????
"People See Things As They Are & Ask Why???
We Can All Dream of Things That Never Were and Ask Why Not!!"( RK )
crasny1
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IMO
Comps R not going to B any problem.
Neels with a gut load of beer!!!!!!!!!!!
"I would like to die on Mars. Just not on impact!!" _ Elon Musk
Adam Gallash
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Not sure
I'm not confident about Gamex/AIBT, pulling out of the AIBT for the fact its more than likely going to be average for anyone thats not in a big boat. As for the FW comp, should be starting to get a bit better by then and hopefully we get some good days, hasn't really happened in the past but we've still managed quality fish if you get out there and maximise the window of opportunity.
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Lastchance
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AIBT - Team Lastchance will
AIBT - Team Lastchance will be there no matter what - either out chasing big girls or in the Potshot. Either way, we wont be at home!
Brucesta
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shouldn't that be chasing big
shouldn't that be chasing big girls in the pot shot? enjoy whatever big girls you get Damo.
Las Vegas - Rolling the dice and trying your luck. 1M+ Barra summer target. 100kg Black Marlin winter target
Bodie
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Yep looking like a cat 3, not
Yep looking like a cat 3, almost rigth on exmouth 5am wednesday!
Going to be nasty sorry to say Adz!
Bodie
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And your right adam, another
And your right adam, another low moving over in the exact same direction Thursday / Friday! Pressure up at the moment, but would put my money on it being another possible cyclone
Tony Halliday
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Well if you boys go back to
Well if you boys go back to my post about two weeks ago on the 11th, I predicted that that little low in the Gulf up north would make it's way all the way around as a Cat3~4 to our area.
Ok this one is going to come in at Balmoral Station, thats 10km north east of the Fortescue River Road House, good bye Sino Iron Ore camp... then turn right towards inland Exxy and pop out at the back of Coral Bay as low, to finaly regroup as a Cat 1 off in the Indian Ocean, one slab of beer on it Neels, you on
.................................
these days who knows??? Waterthese days who knows??? Water is so hot in that tropical band now that models are finding it difficult to perdict growth rates rationaly.
http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/4day_col.shtml
but Adam you may be right, but I'd guess a small Cat 3 and closer to Cat 4 when it cruises into the Kimberlies,
Watch the formation on the projection here of that tropical low cell in the Gulf of Carpentaria !!!! into a heavy water bundened mass on the wxmaps model. If they right then that's CAT5 material if it moves West and into the hot water's of the Kimberlies
http://wxmaps.org/pix/aus.pw.html
http://wxmaps.org/pix/aus.vort.html
I'll go as far as saying by midday Wed 16th we will have a Cat 2~3 cyclone in the NT region moving slowly NW towards Darwin
...........................................
Tony Halliday: ~Meals on Reels ~
It takes a strong fish to swim against the current. Even a dead one can float with it
"It is always in season for old men to learn." Aeschylus (525-456 BC)
"In a mad world only the mad are sane." Akira Kurosawa (1910-1998)
Tony Halliday
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ok here my track I have
ok here my track I have guessed on and how the bugger will skim the coast and then turn in.
Uploaded with ImageShack.us
Tony Halliday: ~Meals on Reels ~
It takes a strong fish to swim against the current. Even a dead one can float with it
"It is always in season for old men to learn." Aeschylus (525-456 BC)
"In a mad world only the mad are sane." Akira Kurosawa (1910-1998)
Bodie
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Date Joined: 05/11/07
Pluto site being evac'ed this
Pluto site being evac'ed this morning.
Brucesta
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just snuck home from Perth it
just snuck home from Perth it seems just in time, K-City already on yellow
Las Vegas - Rolling the dice and trying your luck. 1M+ Barra summer target. 100kg Black Marlin winter target
Tony Halliday
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I'm ment to fly up late
I'm ment to fly up late tomorrow or wed to FMG !!!
that could just be going to the dogs now too!
Tony Halliday: ~Meals on Reels ~
It takes a strong fish to swim against the current. Even a dead one can float with it
"It is always in season for old men to learn." Aeschylus (525-456 BC)
"In a mad world only the mad are sane." Akira Kurosawa (1910-1998)
tailor marc
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mates house in ktown flodded
mates house in ktown flodded allready and it hadnt even got there yet
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drewhawk
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trees down
There are trees down and roofs off near shops.
scottland
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apparently four mini tornadoes hit karratha
dad says a caravan near his camp was hit and theres nothing but a chassis left. and a a boat on a roof nearlly
i support two teams eagles and whoever is playing the dockers
Bodie
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Looks like a direct hit to
Looks like a direct hit to Exmouth at the moment, at cat 2/3
tailor marc
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http://www.youtube.com/watch?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AlvpS4TRmyc&feature=player_embedded
My photography pictures... http://westernhorizonsmedia.wordpress.com/
crasny1
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Tony
I might owe you some lure. Your track is spot on.
Neels
"I would like to die on Mars. Just not on impact!!" _ Elon Musk
Tony Halliday
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just has to move another 50km
just has to move another 50km south then it's coming straight out of the back of Coral Bay...
the warm water off Broome was always going to drag it south
Tony Halliday: ~Meals on Reels ~
It takes a strong fish to swim against the current. Even a dead one can float with it
"It is always in season for old men to learn." Aeschylus (525-456 BC)
"In a mad world only the mad are sane." Akira Kurosawa (1910-1998)
crasny1
Posts: 7003
Date Joined: 16/10/08
Just when I thought I might see a nice Radar
of a cyclone, Dampier's down, and the ones from Hedland and Exxy doesnt look that impressive.
"I would like to die on Mars. Just not on impact!!" _ Elon Musk
Rod P
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Good luck and be safe to all
Good luck and be safe to all involved..Or caught up..
Tony Halliday
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Well me and my big mouth!!!!
Well me and my big mouth!!!! flight out of Perth delayed till further notice, sitting at airport waiting for Skypest to decide if they can land at the mines or not, Cloud Break is a 50~50 chance, those more north are swamped on the runways already F@#$% it. two flights now backed up and we all drinking coffee and looking like a taxin home is the next bet!
Oh well at least I may have a good weekend at home finaly with no wind!
buugggggggggerrrrr should not jinx myself like that.
Tony Halliday: ~Meals on Reels ~
It takes a strong fish to swim against the current. Even a dead one can float with it
"It is always in season for old men to learn." Aeschylus (525-456 BC)
"In a mad world only the mad are sane." Akira Kurosawa (1910-1998)
crasny1
Posts: 7003
Date Joined: 16/10/08
Not bad so far
But a little weird. ATM almost dead calm, but should not be in the eye, but I think we are.
All BOM etc site info says its over Mermaid sound as we speak, but very calm here now.
Let the dogs out for a mother nature call.
Not complacent at all.
"I would like to die on Mars. Just not on impact!!" _ Elon Musk
Tony Halliday
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Date Joined: 14/06/07
take it easy mate, weather
take it easy mate, weather radars are showing it right over you and heading for Mardie Station next!
All my mates at Fortescue Road House, take care folks and batten down safely.
oh and I'm still in the departures waiting for an update...
Tony Halliday: ~Meals on Reels ~
It takes a strong fish to swim against the current. Even a dead one can float with it
"It is always in season for old men to learn." Aeschylus (525-456 BC)
"In a mad world only the mad are sane." Akira Kurosawa (1910-1998)
crasny1
Posts: 7003
Date Joined: 16/10/08
I am Tony
Started up again but still not bad at all. I think you should bugger off in the Taxi and go home. You aint flying up here.
Neels
"I would like to die on Mars. Just not on impact!!" _ Elon Musk
tailor marc
Posts: 2979
Date Joined: 27/09/06
Looks like water temps are
Looks like water temps are enough for it to make it to perth ....
http://www.bom.gov.au/oceanography/forecasts/idyoc10.shtml?region=10&forecast=1
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crasny1
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No mate
Dont think so, but that water doesn't mean someone aint getting a coral trout off Rotto!
http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/sh1511.gif
going like dianne, out wide.
Neels
"I would like to die on Mars. Just not on impact!!" _ Elon Musk
crasny1
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But who is Next????
T other one cooking!!
http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Wind%20850%20and%20mslp!144!Australia!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2011022200!!/
And if I am knot (fishing joke) wrong the latter the stronger the cyclones are!!
Neels
"I would like to die on Mars. Just not on impact!!" _ Elon Musk
Tony Halliday
Posts: 2500
Date Joined: 14/06/07
well got out finaly from
well got out finaly from Perth and flew into a bloody wet and soggy Cloud Break site.
Place has flooded salt pans and run off like I have never seen up here before. Oh how I hate red mud....and 30 deg with 90% + humidity
I think TC Carlos will hold a Cat1 righ the way through and rattle the campers in Coral Bay / Ningaloo the slowly curve down the coat about 500~700km off shore and die some where off Perth.
As for the new low creeping across the north, that could be another Cat 2~3 and will follow the same route, but more north and come south closer to Exmouth ( sorry boys,,,, )
oh well there goes the fishing up there for awhile.
Tony Halliday: ~Meals on Reels ~
It takes a strong fish to swim against the current. Even a dead one can float with it
"It is always in season for old men to learn." Aeschylus (525-456 BC)
"In a mad world only the mad are sane." Akira Kurosawa (1910-1998)
marble
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Date Joined: 03/09/09
Blowing a bit now :-(
Blowing a bit now :-(
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