Cyclone formation
Submitted by crasny1 on Mon, 2012-03-12 09:26
So whats the thought. I suspect Tuesday formation with coastal impact Thur-Fri as a strong Cat2 north of Karratha. Headland again Im afraid boys, possibly even forther north.
Neels
____________________________________________________________________________
"I would like to die on Mars. Just not on impact!!" _ Elon Musk
Mitchell
Posts: 32
Date Joined: 18/08/05
Woodside seems to think
Woodside seems to think tuesday aswell ,NRA are de maning and on the goodwyn we have had a few contractors sent home.
We are in full tie down mode though..
The one behind the present one is the one to worry about i feel.
snappermiles
Posts: 2100
Date Joined: 05/11/10
looks like late monday or tuesday formation
with friday arvo or saturday an impact colse to 80 mile beach but it could be lower depending on the eqautorial low which may push it further south! but this is also teaming up with a massive low pressure system which could bring gale force winds to as far east as the far east pilbarra right out to indonesia! im just east of onslow and it is blowing a gail now! most of the wind and rain looks like its to the north east of the system they are saying if the wind shear was less and the high pressure system wasnt pushing this system north we could have had another yasi! the cyclone doesnt look like it is going to be very strong cat 2 3 if we are lucky/unlucky but its diameter is huge
ALL FISHERMEN ARE LIARS EXCEPT YOU AND ME! AND IM NOT SO SURE ABOUT YOU!
Taylormaid
Posts: 16
Date Joined: 12/02/10
Developing Low
Not sure what will happen
Im currently 150 kms off Karatha on a floater and the wind here is about 30kt seas about 3mtrs with very grey skies and lots of rain.
Central pressure is now 999hpa
leesfishin
Posts: 233
Date Joined: 27/03/11
taylormaid
hi matt hows it going!
i bought your boat of you an your dad taylor made .
hows your new boat going?
cheers lee
Tony Halliday
Posts: 2500
Date Joined: 14/06/07
tuesday a cat 1 and tehn
tuesday a cat 1 and tehn climbing to a cat3 over the region north of Exyy movuing slowly east wards till it bumps into Broome as a cat2.
thats my call and leaving behind crappy dirty water for us to fish in at the end of the month
then add to it this one over NT moiving west! who knows it could be a big C-F
http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDWP0006.shtml
http://www.bom.gov.au/fwo/IDG00074.gif?2012-Mar-11-03:25:30
that could mean two systems in the same region!!!!
Tony Halliday: ~Meals on Reels ~
It takes a strong fish to swim against the current. Even a dead one can float with it
"It is always in season for old men to learn." Aeschylus (525-456 BC)
"In a mad world only the mad are sane." Akira Kurosawa (1910-1998)
CCC
Posts: 539
Date Joined: 29/03/10
Bloody hell, sick to death of
Bloody hell, sick to death of these cyclones. Please dont hit hedland go out to sea and stay there.
On a positive note a heap of rain in the Kimberley would be good so all the falls are flowing for our 2 week trip in April.
CCC
Genoa
Posts: 34
Date Joined: 18/12/10
Second low
The second low is a worry for me, heading up to exy on the 20th for 9 days hopefully
abeldog
Posts: 801
Date Joined: 12/04/10
Feel Like the Cyclone Chaser
will be in or around all those spots for the next four weeks.
"People See Things As They Are & Ask Why???
We Can All Dream of Things That Never Were and Ask Why Not!!"( RK )
Taylormaid
Posts: 16
Date Joined: 12/02/10
leesfishin
Hi Lee
We now have a chivers shark series 5.8m we must be luke's favourite customer we seem to change our minds every 12 months haha
How has the boat been treating you, good i hope
I do miss the old girl but as they say plenty more fish in the sea
Have you made any improvements to the boat???
Cheers
Matt
CCC
Posts: 539
Date Joined: 29/03/10
Nice rig the 5.8 Chivers, i
Nice rig the 5.8 Chivers, i too have one. Enjoying yours?
CCC
leesfishin
Posts: 233
Date Joined: 27/03/11
taylormaid
matt pm sent
biggerfish
Posts: 669
Date Joined: 02/03/09
We got flown hOme last week
We got flown hOme last week from NRB cause the jacket installation is complete now we are waiting for topside to get floated over here from indo we were ment to remobilize this Friday but by the sounds of it doesn't sound like that's going to happen
Play hard fish harder
Bodie
Posts: 3758
Date Joined: 05/11/07
2nd low pressure system is
2nd low pressure system is now up on bom as a cyclone alert.
Looking at the projected path, it could go any direction!!!! But at this point stayed just out of reach of exmouth!
Fingers crossed!!
Bodie
Posts: 3758
Date Joined: 05/11/07
Karratha????
scottland
Posts: 3038
Date Joined: 10/05/10
Drunken voyager hahah
Who knows where it's going
i support two teams eagles and whoever is playing the dockers
Tony Halliday
Posts: 2500
Date Joined: 14/06/07
we got another drunken
we got another drunken whirlybird in our north!
With both lows now classified as cyclones, the top end is in for a wet end of season blast.
Where they going ??? who knows??? I'mnot even wavering a guess, as I first thought this one would track west with the warm water, but that has gone to boot
As long as it stays away from Exmouth I'm happy
Tony Halliday: ~Meals on Reels ~
It takes a strong fish to swim against the current. Even a dead one can float with it
"It is always in season for old men to learn." Aeschylus (525-456 BC)
"In a mad world only the mad are sane." Akira Kurosawa (1910-1998)
marble
Posts: 775
Date Joined: 03/09/09
i`m gunna run with this map
i`m gunna run with this map I reckon , suits me just fine
PMY 25 Centre Console DF300 Suzuki
crasny1
Posts: 7003
Date Joined: 16/10/08
Recon 80mile might cop it.
I just dont want to tie down. Sick off it. No gales in Kcity.
"I would like to die on Mars. Just not on impact!!" _ Elon Musk
Dale
Posts: 7930
Date Joined: 13/09/05
I'm on a week off back home,
I'm on a week off back home, so bring it on while I'm here.
Cheers
Dale
"Just because you are a Character, Doesn't mean you have Character."
Mr Wolf
CCC
Posts: 539
Date Joined: 29/03/10
Had an update at work today,
Had an update at work today, cat 3 while off shore. Possiblility of cat 4-5 as crosses coast. Between Hedland and Pardoo. Sound to much like Cyclone George
Thanks crasny1 you jinxed us again haha
Meeting tomorrow at work re trying down.....here we go again. First Priority is boat into mates workshop
mr_meks
Posts: 189
Date Joined: 11/02/11
All I care about is flights
All I care about is flights out of KTA on monday. If lua shuts them down there shall be RAGE.
Bodie
Posts: 3758
Date Joined: 05/11/07
seabreeze is predicting a 9m
seabreeze is predicting a 9m swell in Broome Saturday night!!!@!!!
Tony Halliday
Posts: 2500
Date Joined: 14/06/07
we just moved crews out of
we just moved crews out of Port Headland that are not critical to prevent a rush on plane seats by thursday / friday !
anywhere between Port Headland and Broome is the go now
Tony Halliday: ~Meals on Reels ~
It takes a strong fish to swim against the current. Even a dead one can float with it
"It is always in season for old men to learn." Aeschylus (525-456 BC)
"In a mad world only the mad are sane." Akira Kurosawa (1910-1998)
Bodie
Posts: 3758
Date Joined: 05/11/07
Im saying Broome, smack bang
Im saying Broome, smack bang on it!
Cat 4
no more cable beach....again
Tony Halliday
Posts: 2500
Date Joined: 14/06/07
I hope you wrong, cause
I hope you wrong, cause Broome just cant afford a direct hit by a Cat 4 or 5 cyclone event now with the poor tourist season and having to clean up before the winter holdiay trade.
This could kill the Broome torusit industry if it's a hard hit.
Our north has become complacent with few big Cat 4 or 5 hits on major towns in the last few years.
cyclone Rosita ( Cat 5 at sea) in April 2000 was only a Cat 3 when it made land falland did major damage, and come in from the north west high up, loosing punch fast as it came inland as it sped up to 30km/hr forward speed!
but a Cat 4 coming in directly westwards would do more major damage, with the leading edge of the cyclone tearing across the cost as it come in and slowly moving at under 20km/hr forward and doing major damage then.
woster case is a Cat 4 bouncing along the shore line before 80mile and then slaming into Broome from the west
thats my view.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cyclone_Rosita
agood read on how ill prepared Broome was as many thought it was too late in the season to be hit and that Broome tended to always dodge the bullet!
Tony Halliday: ~Meals on Reels ~
It takes a strong fish to swim against the current. Even a dead one can float with it
"It is always in season for old men to learn." Aeschylus (525-456 BC)
"In a mad world only the mad are sane." Akira Kurosawa (1910-1998)
marble
Posts: 775
Date Joined: 03/09/09
Now i`m really worried about
Now i`m really worried about Exmouth Tony. If your forecast for this one is as accurate as your forecasts as the last few the bloody thing could go anywhere
PMY 25 Centre Console DF300 Suzuki
crasny1
Posts: 7003
Date Joined: 16/10/08
Tony's not that bad
These bloody thing can do what they want to do. At best computer models calculate where they are likely to go, but in the end they can change rapidly and do all odds and sods.
It more fun trying to predict, but you only have to look at the last cyclone and how the maps kept changing, and after all that she scooted out to sea.
"I would like to die on Mars. Just not on impact!!" _ Elon Musk
Tony Halliday
Posts: 2500
Date Joined: 14/06/07
lol
lol
Tony Halliday: ~Meals on Reels ~
It takes a strong fish to swim against the current. Even a dead one can float with it
"It is always in season for old men to learn." Aeschylus (525-456 BC)
"In a mad world only the mad are sane." Akira Kurosawa (1910-1998)
crasny1
Posts: 7003
Date Joined: 16/10/08
Pleasure. Us old farts have
Pleasure. Us old farts have to look after each other, esp old Jaaps.
"I would like to die on Mars. Just not on impact!!" _ Elon Musk
Bodie
Posts: 3758
Date Joined: 05/11/07
US navy has it hitting
US navy has it hitting headland smack on!
crasny1
Posts: 7003
Date Joined: 16/10/08
Yip, so far
"I would like to die on Mars. Just not on impact!!" _ Elon Musk
Tony Halliday
Posts: 2500
Date Joined: 14/06/07
and thats why our big boss
and thats why our big boss pulled out our crew,
but I still think it will go more to the East as the hot water is strong that side and will draw it still more east
further from Exy the better for me!
Tony Halliday: ~Meals on Reels ~
It takes a strong fish to swim against the current. Even a dead one can float with it
"It is always in season for old men to learn." Aeschylus (525-456 BC)
"In a mad world only the mad are sane." Akira Kurosawa (1910-1998)
Bodie
Posts: 3758
Date Joined: 05/11/07
Cat 4 just north of
Cat 4 just north of Pardoo.
Anyone know if any of the rain which is dumped inland once it comes ashore will effect the Canarvan and Kalbarri rivers?
Looking at the 4 day forecast, can see the rain isnt that far inalnd from the coast. Would the water make it out the rivers?
Dale
Posts: 7930
Date Joined: 13/09/05
Woodside going into Tie Down
Woodside going into Tie Down phase at 18:00 today too.
Cheers
Dale
"Just because you are a Character, Doesn't mean you have Character."
Mr Wolf
Tony Halliday
Posts: 2500
Date Joined: 14/06/07
yip we got the Blue light
yip we got the Blue light too for Port Headland opration and all our people on long weekends
stay safe people, this could be a CAT3 to 4 monster if it builds anymore over night!
Tony Halliday: ~Meals on Reels ~
It takes a strong fish to swim against the current. Even a dead one can float with it
"It is always in season for old men to learn." Aeschylus (525-456 BC)
"In a mad world only the mad are sane." Akira Kurosawa (1910-1998)
CCC
Posts: 539
Date Joined: 29/03/10
Latest Update we have from
Latest Update we have from BOM is cat 4 when crossing coast east of Port Hedland but some models show crossing West of Hedland. Looks like we are in for a rough weekend.
karratha
Posts: 11
Date Joined: 07/03/11
My prediction Whim Creek
My prediction Whim Creek
4.88mt Quintrex Seabreeze, 70HP Johnson 2 stroke
Malibu Pro Explorer fishing kayak
tournament
Posts: 376
Date Joined: 10/11/09
looks like its going strait
looks like its going strait over the top of work if bom is rite
Jelle
Posts: 142
Date Joined: 21/12/11
Yes, not looking good for us
Yes, not looking good for us here in hedland. 4 months ago I booked us some flights to Bali, flying out tomorrow.. unbelievable!
Dale
Posts: 7930
Date Joined: 13/09/05
I fly out to a Rio place on
I fly out to a Rio place on Monday, West Angelas, so it going to be interesting to see if I get the fly out then.
Cheers
Dale
"Just because you are a Character, Doesn't mean you have Character."
Mr Wolf
jono.s
Posts: 440
Date Joined: 27/07/09
Telfer on blue alert
Telfer on blue alert
tournament
Posts: 376
Date Joined: 10/11/09
just looked on seabreeze 10
just looked on seabreeze 10 meter swell in broome were on yellow alert here im between marble bar and yarrie
ealzee
Posts: 611
Date Joined: 14/11/11
Stay save and goodluck! Here
Stay save and goodluck! Here she comes!!!
kill it??? eat it!!!!
Markie
Posts: 2149
Date Joined: 06/08/10
ffs fly out day monday or
ffs fly out day monday or tuesday from kununurra to broome then to perth.. all i wanna do is goo homeeeeeeee...
CCC
Posts: 539
Date Joined: 29/03/10
only gusting to about 45knots
only gusting to about 45knots in hedland. Is expected to lift abit more over the next 6 hours
tournament
Posts: 376
Date Joined: 10/11/09
looks like a cat 4 when it
looks like a cat 4 when it crosses the coast
CCC
Posts: 539
Date Joined: 29/03/10
Hope the guys up at pardoo
Hope the guys up at pardoo and sandfire are doing ok
jono.s
Posts: 440
Date Joined: 27/07/09
Yellow alert now in telfer ,
Yellow alert now in telfer , stop work , tie down , pack up and go back to camp , predicting red alert at 1800 hrs , whole mine is flooded lol
tournament
Posts: 376
Date Joined: 10/11/09
all clear and all good
all clear and all good
scottland
Posts: 3038
Date Joined: 10/05/10
perfect 10 from the russian judge
for this 360
i support two teams eagles and whoever is playing the dockers