Cyclone season forecast

Sorry, I am still waiting for the full WA release, but this is the initial WA report along with more detailed analysis for the NT and Qld.

Australia’s northwest may have between four and six tropical cyclones this season, the Bureau of Meteorology said, potentially threatening mining operations and oil production.
“We are looking at average to below average for total outlook,” for the season beginning November 1, Andrew Burton, manager of severe weather services at the bureau said . That compares with last season when there were four cyclones and two tropical lows, he said.

NT Outlook
The Bureau of Meteorology in Darwin has released its 2009-10 Cyclone Season Outlook for the waters surrounding the Northern Territory. The outlook is for near neutral conditions, with the first cyclone likely to occur in January.
Gordon Jackson, supervising meteorologist in the Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre in Darwin, said that during a normal El Niño, a slow start to the cyclone season might be expected. “That is probably true for Australia overall this season,” Mr Jackson said, “but this El Niño is a bit unusual. There are mixed signals from the ocean and the atmosphere, and things are a bit harder to read.
Tropical cyclone activity will be near average over the northern region in the coming season.
Details of the outlook for the 2009-10 tropical cyclone season for the northern region:
An early cyclone (November or early December) is unlikely, though it cannot be ruled out. It is more likely that the first cyclone will occur in January.
On average, two to three cyclones form in the waters surrounding the Northern Territory each season. However, cyclone numbers in past seasons have ranged from none to as many as five.
The Gulf of Carpentaria tends to have the most cyclone activity, though cyclones can still occur anywhere in the waters surrounding the Northern Territory. In past seasons, with similar conditions, cyclones occurred 50 per cent more often in the Gulf than in the waters to the north or west of the Top End.
There is also a 50 per cent chance of a severe tropical cyclone (Category 3 or greater) forming during the season. If a severe cyclone forms this season, it is more likely to affect the Gulf of Carpentaria.
The northern region incorporates the eastern Timor Sea, Arafura Sea and the Gulf of Carpentaria.

Qld and Coral Sea Outlook
Seasonal Outlook 2009-10 for Queensland and the Coral Sea Region
Summary: The 2009-10 season is expected to be largely influenced by a comparatively weak El Niño event. Therefore rainfall and flooding should not be as extensive as the past two seasons and a tropical cyclone impact on the east coast is a little less likely than in neutral or La Niña years. An expected late start to the monsoon and an outlook favouring above average temperatures suggests a relatively long fire season.

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Adam Gallash's picture

Posts: 15665

Date Joined: 29/11/05

been a while

Tue, 2009-10-27 11:46

Been a while since theres been a really big one, wouldnt suprise me if this year had a monster.

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jay_burgess's picture

Posts: 4648

Date Joined: 18/08/05

suits me if it's below

Tue, 2009-10-27 20:00

suits me if it's below average season,
annoying when cyclones bugger up the tail end of the barra season.