Cyclone Vince
Submitted by Bodie on Wed, 2011-01-12 12:01
Wheres this one going to hit? predictions?
Looks like it could be north of Port headland, unless it changes path. Now expected to be a cat 3 cyclone by 8am Friday but still hundreds of kms from shore.
Heopfully it doesnt swing to the south, and line up Canarvan.
.thumbnail.jpg "Decent Mackerel")
snappermiles
Posts: 2100
Date Joined: 05/11/10
according to the rio website
its going to do a big turn to the south on friday arvo and run along the coast not impacting much at all! but i dont trust them that much they never seem to do what the bureau thinks they are going to!
ALL FISHERMEN ARE LIARS EXCEPT YOU AND ME! AND IM NOT SO SURE ABOUT YOU!
Adam Gallash
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Cat 4-5
Good chance it will be a cat 4-5 because its so far offshore and the water temps are so high. Who's going to get it is the million dollar question.
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tailor marc
Posts: 2979
Date Joined: 27/09/06
Looks like it may hit k-town
Looks like it may hit k-town- Port Hedland at cat 4-5 ?
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Dicko
Posts: 219
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it will turn away
They reckon it will turn away later on...fingers crossed!
nana nana nana nana fishing!!!
Brucesta
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as above it's predicted to
as above it's predicted to turn away for the weekend so i can go fishing :)
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Lastchance
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Blood better turn!
Going to the Monties on Sunday.....
Brucesta
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it'll be a slow trip mate,
it'll be a slow trip mate, good luck to you if you get out there, feel free to drop a red off on the way home :)
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Lastchance
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Monties
Get Tuesday off and come with us............
jay_burgess
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Looks like it could be a bit
Looks like it could be a bit hairy out there!
Brucesta
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mate i would if i wasn't on
mate i would if i wasn't on call, spewing!!
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Lastchance
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Cyclone
You get reception at the Monties.......
Who cares anyway, Brucesta, the only people to call you out would be Ops.......
Brucesta
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don't bloody tempt me, i'd be
don't bloody tempt me, i'd be pushing my luck with the boss getting the new boat. are you still going with Vince off the coast, it'll be a fun drive with the swell.
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Tony Halliday
Posts: 2500
Date Joined: 14/06/07
my bet is a cat5 storm
my bet is a cat5 storm weakening juts before landfall, and coming in just southwest of Karratha into cyclone alley!
This ones a monster as it's going against the normal track of east to west and following the hot water thats fueling it.
I suspect it will turn hard south around late tomorrow evening / friday morning and head for the coast....
sorry boys, but you in for another drenching!
http://wxmaps.org/pix/aus.pw.html
the potential energy and water dictates where the cyclone will go.
http://wxmaps.org/pix/aus.vort.html
Tony Halliday: ~Meals on Reels ~
It takes a strong fish to swim against the current. Even a dead one can float with it
"It is always in season for old men to learn." Aeschylus (525-456 BC)
"In a mad world only the mad are sane." Akira Kurosawa (1910-1998)
Bodie
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i hate to say it, but Tony
i hate to say it, but Tony may be right.
looking like it could be a large powerful storm, and its current predicted path doesnt look too good.
Tony Halliday
Posts: 2500
Date Joined: 14/06/07
I don't trust the BOM weather
I don't trust the BOM weather maps which seem very iiifshhh in predections.
but if you look at those watr temps and energy charts, plus predicted low cells on the international one, you get the picture it may just turn right and get nasty on us.
Bodie, I wish I was wrong too!!!
Tony Halliday: ~Meals on Reels ~
It takes a strong fish to swim against the current. Even a dead one can float with it
"It is always in season for old men to learn." Aeschylus (525-456 BC)
"In a mad world only the mad are sane." Akira Kurosawa (1910-1998)
sherbert
Posts: 4717
Date Joined: 10/09/06
Steeppoint sunday
What do you think tony
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Tony Halliday
Posts: 2500
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I think you could kite fish
I think you could kite fish to 5miles out off Steep by Sunday....lol.
Would be nasty if it did hit the Shark Bay area, that area is not well set up and protected.
cheers
Tony Halliday: ~Meals on Reels ~
It takes a strong fish to swim against the current. Even a dead one can float with it
"It is always in season for old men to learn." Aeschylus (525-456 BC)
"In a mad world only the mad are sane." Akira Kurosawa (1910-1998)
tailor marc
Posts: 2979
Date Joined: 27/09/06
Hi Sherbs. I sat out a
Hi Sherbs. I sat out a cyclone yrs back camped at false entrance. Was a nasty night but we still caught bulk fish. Fishing shouldnt be effected there but it may get hairy
My photography pictures... http://westernhorizonsmedia.wordpress.com/
sherbert
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Cheers guys
Hate to miss the trip, NO i wont miss the trip .
Loaded up and still going , If we got to stop somewere else who cares
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Silk200611
Posts: 286
Date Joined: 08/02/09
Hate to say itt but would be
Hate to say itt but would be good to get a good rain lil north of Port Headland.. To get them muddies moving south..
Call me Brad as that's my name..
scotto
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hmmm
vince sounds a lot like vance.......
MattMiller
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Date Joined: 15/06/09
Pretty much
what i was thinking, for everyone sake up there i hope not
marble
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Good onya Scotto , , , not
Good onya Scotto , , , not sposed to say things like that
PMY 25 Centre Console DF300 Suzuki
SamC
Posts: 2013
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You Exmouthtarian's look to
You Exmouthtarian's look to be quite safe Marble.
Spoke to Steve Riley today and he seems pretty confident Exxy will be fine.
Cheers,
Sam
deepwater
Posts: 1921
Date Joined: 09/05/07
vince
im hoping so there Sam,misses us all together,we are demaning all the riggs today so they think it is coming down this way
jeff
sherbert
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Date Joined: 10/09/06
Any up date
On this cyclone lads And what you think now
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Webby
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Date Joined: 24/09/08
most of the big girls have
most of the big girls have come from out that that way, normaly a little further north tho. will be interesting to see. my guess is onslow ftw
I live with fear every day... sometimes she lets me go fishing.
Brucesta
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Date Joined: 29/05/09
here's Woodside's prediction
here's Woodside's prediction
Las Vegas - Rolling the dice and trying your luck. 1M+ Barra summer target. 100kg Black Marlin winter target
Man Overboard
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Is that u-turn based on water
Is that u-turn based on water temps Bruce ?
Bodie
Posts: 3758
Date Joined: 05/11/07
yeah that u-turn is
yeah that u-turn is interesting, if it actually does do it. it intensifiys to a cat 3 then abck to a 2 after the u-turn....hmmm
Man Overboard
Posts: 957
Date Joined: 16/01/10
If it is following warm
If it is following warm water, then that is it's fuel.
How does it get weaker out to sea, i was under the impression they weaken after landfall.
Whatever happens it's gonna be very closely watched,
with all the other shit going down around the country, it wouldn't surprise me if this one packs a real wallop
Brucesta
Posts: 1721
Date Joined: 29/05/09
they said the trough will
they said the trough has weakened and is allowing the easterly movement but once it reforms she'll go back to a more traditional cyclone path with the SW track. predicting light winds in K-Town this weekend but 1m swell, still might get out and find some fish
Las Vegas - Rolling the dice and trying your luck. 1M+ Barra summer target. 100kg Black Marlin winter target
sherbert
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Nice in put
keep it comeing, Hoping steeppoint will still be ok
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Brucesta
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wind shear is whats going to
wind shear is whats going to weaken it, gets the upper and middle level shear and it kills off the rotation apparently.....
i'm no meteorologist but this stuff interests me.
Las Vegas - Rolling the dice and trying your luck. 1M+ Barra summer target. 100kg Black Marlin winter target
Man Overboard
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You'll be right sherbs, might
You'll be right sherbs, might cop a wet arse on the way home though
sherbert
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Date Joined: 10/09/06
Cheers boys
Going on the 17th to 22 nd
sherbs
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Dicko
Posts: 219
Date Joined: 07/10/10
Bad news boy
Tony, do you have to be the bearer of bad news!!! I hope you're wrong!
I actually think the Bom has been very accurate this year too.
BTW, warm water doesn't impact the steering of a cyclone, other pressure systems around it do....unless they are one of those freak ones that have a mind of their own.
But I'm sure all of us up here are hoping this thing does the u-turn they say it will!!!!
nana nana nana nana fishing!!!
Tony Halliday
Posts: 2500
Date Joined: 14/06/07
LOL Dicko, yep hope I am
LOL Dicko, yep hope I am wrong too!
I did geography climatology and town planning as extra credits at Uni, and it has helped me only now later in life
Tropical lows will follow the warm water if they have strong enough gradient and no other lows forcing it away. But we sitting with a string of upper atmosphere low cells pulling in mega amounts of warm wet air from Christmass Island all the way to otherside Fiji at the moment. So we can expect a few more in the next month ( me thinks..
)
My guess is this bugger is going to sit still going in an anticlockwise circle around 700 km off the Exmouth coast then duck down south west and into the Idian Ocean if we lucky now.
Worst case is the hot water cell north west of Exmouth averaging 30~31 deg surface water temps starts to spike south again, then Vince will sniff it out and grow into a monster that could come down to Shark Bay...
Tony Halliday: ~Meals on Reels ~
It takes a strong fish to swim against the current. Even a dead one can float with it
"It is always in season for old men to learn." Aeschylus (525-456 BC)
"In a mad world only the mad are sane." Akira Kurosawa (1910-1998)
Bodie
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Date Joined: 05/11/07
another expected to form off
another expected to form off the east coast now, off cairns.
sunshine
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I use JTWC -
And they use a crow computer for their very accurate predictions -
Their latest states - which explains the abrupt turn in it's path
130300Z POSITION NEAR 15.7S 109.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06S (VINCE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 380 NM
NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT
03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT WHILE CONVECTION
HAS CONSOLIDATED OVER THE SYSTEM CENTER, THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
REMAINS ELONGATED IN THE EAST-WEST DIRECTION. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN THE CURRENT POSITION, WITH A 130031Z 37 GHZ SSMIS
MICROWAVE IMAGE SUGGESTING A CENTER WEST OF CURRENT AGENCY FIXES.
THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 35 T0 45 KNOTS FROM APRF, PGTW, AND KNES.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS IN A MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AND MODERATE (20
KNOTS) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TC 06S IS CURRENTLY DRIFTING
EASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LOW TO MID-LEVEL WESTERLY WIND
BURST EQUATORWARD OF THE CYCLONE. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY AND CONTINUING TRACKING GENERALLY EASTWARD
THROUGH TAU 48. AFTER TAU 48, TC 06S WILL TURN SHARPLY WESTWARD AS
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS POLEWARD OF THE CYCLONE, BEHIND A
PASSING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE TURN TO THE WEST, WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF NOGAPS AND GFS, WHICH HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY PULLED BACK ON
THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM. BECAUSE THE NOGAPS AND GFS ARE
WEAKENING THIS SYSTEM AND DECREASING THE STEERING LEVEL MORE THAN
EXPECTED, THIS FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY SOUTH AND SLOWER THEN MODEL
CONSENSUS TO FAVOR THE ECMWF, GFDN, WBAR, AND EGRR MODEL GROUPING.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 130000Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 131500Z AND 140300Z.//
snappermiles
Posts: 2100
Date Joined: 05/11/10
its another big
fizzer! doing a complete about face according to the rio site!! wont let me post pictures though
ALL FISHERMEN ARE LIARS EXCEPT YOU AND ME! AND IM NOT SO SURE ABOUT YOU!
max199
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Lets
hope so and fizzes to a trop. low.
Lucky Tim
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trouble is it's U turn puts
trouble is it's U turn puts it back onto the sort of track that a cyclone is supposed to follow, which could mean bad news for when it gets angry and swings to the SE again. Mind you over the decades of cyclone modelling they seem to be reasonably accurate in their predictions. Still wouldn't like to be sitting around the NWS platforms right about now.
tailor marc
Posts: 2979
Date Joined: 27/09/06
Looks like they think it will
Looks like they think it will do a loop-d-loop at the moment...
http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDW60281.shtml
My photography pictures... http://westernhorizonsmedia.wordpress.com/
Tony Halliday
Posts: 2500
Date Joined: 14/06/07
yip, I give up, this ones on
yip, I give up, this ones on it's own drugs and mission!!!!
If you look at the projections over a few days, no body really knows what this one is going fo do now...lol
But with luck, it will stay of off the coast and bugger around doing circles in the sea
Tony Halliday: ~Meals on Reels ~
It takes a strong fish to swim against the current. Even a dead one can float with it
"It is always in season for old men to learn." Aeschylus (525-456 BC)
"In a mad world only the mad are sane." Akira Kurosawa (1910-1998)
Adam Gallash
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Looking outside
Site Admin - Just ask if you need assistance
max199
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Date Joined: 09/05/06
Well
us fellas sure hope so!
carnarvonite
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Down graded
Was just on the news that is been down graded to a tropical low and isn't expected to affect the coast
sherbert
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Thats good news
Steeppoint here we come
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max199
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Sherbs'
ass, here I cum!! Sorry just banter
Colin Hay
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Lol That is a worse thought than any TC Max
In the end the only cyclone you might have at Steep Point is Sherbs' snoring
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max199
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Date Joined: 09/05/06
Cat
5!!
Colin Hay
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Date Joined: 23/10/07
Take some industrial strength ear plugs Max
And have a great time
Moderator. Proud member of the Fishwrecked "Old Farts". Make sure your subscribed to Fishwrecked Reeltime http://fishwrecked-reeltime.com/
carnarvonite
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Extras
Take twice as many and use the extras as nose plugs for when he farts.
max199
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Date Joined: 09/05/06
never
a truer word spoken!